Thursday brings us a 3 game slate from Blast. The slate locks at 7:30 am EST and the games are:
Furia (60% implied win probability) vs OG
Vitality (60%) vs Navi
G2 (53%) vs Big
For any of you night owls reading this, DK added Nivera (7.6k) and Amanek (6.0k) to the slate. It’s pretty likely that Navi pick Nuke, which is not one of the maps Nivera plays on, meaning at best he’ll play the 2nd and 3rd (or 1st and 3rd, what’s important is he’ll sit one of the 1st two maps) maps. At his price he’s unplayable here considered who he is priced near (top fraggers from a bunch of teams). Amanek though is an interesting play. He’s priced right near RpK, and is a solid pivot off of him. RpK has been playing out of his mind lately, but he’s due for regression any time now as it’s not like he just took a giant leap in skill nearly a decade into his pro career. I like Amanek quite a bit to the point where I might swing more of my lineups towards G2 in the hopes that he goes overlooked since he was added late.
Before we jump in to the actual slate there’s a few important notes on these teams. As more and more teams begin to adopt 6 man lineups, it makes it tough for DFS. Navi is the latest team to jump in on this trend, as last match they subbed B1T in for Flamie on Inferno. Flamie then came back in for Nuke and Dust 2. It remains to be seen if BiT will sub in on any other maps. Note that of the bottom fraggers, Boombl4 is the one that should be safe from sub risk, as he’s the IGL. Of course, on the other side Vitality continue to sub Nivera in for Shox on Inferno, and for Misutaaa on Dust 2. Nivera (and B1t for that matter) is still not in the player pool. Both Dust 2 and Inferno are very much in play as map options in this series, and since it’s not the first game we won’t know the matchups before lock. That’s enough for me to take Shox, Misutaaa, and Flamie out of my player pool.
Lastly on the team notes, G2 have officially chosen Amanek over Jackz. G2 played Wednesday and DK had the right roster. So naturally, for the slate Thursday DK have somehow screwed it up, putting Jackz in the player pool and leaving out Amanek. Do not play Jackz.
Okay, let’s finally move on to the players we know will be playing and are actually in the player pool. Two spots immediately jump out to me as chalk. Those spots are G2 and Furia. G2 just beat Furia Wednesday, Yet Niko is still only $8.2k as a favorite. Hunter is $7.4 and KennyS is $7.0. Those are all entirely too cheap. Especially against a Big team that Tabsen essentially admitted is burnt out right now in a recent interview (story is on HLTV if you’re interested). Meanwhile, Furia are tied for the biggest favorites on the slate, yet have no one priced over $8k. Even after the loss to G2, I expect them to pick up quite a bit of ownership here against an OG team that hasn’t looked all that great lately.
Everything I typed in the paragraph above is true, however even with that G2 are barely better than a coinflip favorites and OG have been given a 40% chance to win by Vegas. If you think that Vegas is generally correct, which I usually do and don’t see a reason to doubt them here, the Big and OG sides of these matchups are great tournament plays. Their ownership should be a lot lower than their odds imply it should be. From OG, Mantuu and Valde are the guys I’m targeting, with a bit of ISSAA mixed in, and from Big it’s Syrson first and then Xantares. If I 3 stack them I think I’d actually go Tizian as the 3rd, he has the best point per dollar projection of the bottom 3 fraggers for Big.
Finally, we have the Vitality vs Navi game. S1mple’s stats over the past month are absolutely insane. He’s averaging nearly 1 kill per round and barely dying more than .5 times per round. Meanwhile, Zywoo also has elite recent stats, just not quite as elite as S1mple. That said, Vitality is the favorite and Zywoo is cheaper. You really can’t go wrong with either player here. I even don’t mind using both of them in the same lineup, as they’re far and away the top projected players on the slate, and both are more than capable of having a good score on a losing map. I won’t do it often, but I will have a few lineups with both players. Other than them there’s not a ton to love from this game, especially with the subs now for both teams. Outside of Zywoo you should really only play RpK or Apex from Vitality since they’re guaranteed to play all the maps, and even then Apex is still borderline unplayable. RpK could be somewhat popular on this slate, as he’s the 2nd best DFS option from Vitality, and he’s had a couple huge games recently. I think he’s going to end up a bit overowned, but I won’t be going out of my way to either play him nor keep him out of my lineups, he’s a fine play. On the Navi side, outside of S1mple I’ll play Electronic, but that’s pretty much it. I’d rather get my other value plays from higher upside players in the other games.
I’m going to do everything I can on this slate to get to either Zywoo or S1mple at captain. As I mentioned before they project a lot better than anyone else, and are both in great recent form. There’s plenty of value and they aren’t that expensive, so it shouldn’t be too hard to fit either of them.
Outside of Zywoo and S1mple, I’ll have some Syrson, Xantares, Mantuu, and Valde at captain. They should all see low ownership, and have the upside to put up scores close to S1mple and Zywoo, at a cheaper price.
Niko will likely be a popular captain choice, and the big 3 from Furia (yuurih, kscerato, hen1) will likely split a decent amount of ownership as well. I don’t think any of them are bad plays, I just likely won’t have much of them as I’ll be focused on the underdogs and Zywoo/S1mple.
You can certainly make a case for an RpK (or other super cheap play) captain lineup and load the rest of the lineup with studs, but I’ll likely be staying away myself. I think there’s enough value that I am looking for raw points in my captain slot Thursday.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!