As we kick off December(!!) we have another nice 5 game slate on DK. Lock is at 10:15 am EST and the games are:
Faze (75% implied win probability) vs Contact
Cloud 9 (62%) vs Ence
Col (55%) vs Gambit
Heroic (62%) vs Spirit
OG (65%) vs MiBR
This slate is essentially the opposite of yesterday. Faze is the biggest favorite at a 75% implied win probability, and I think that might be a bit too high. I was also surprised the Col/Gambit matchup was that close, I expected Col to be 60-65% favorites at least. Gambit are a solid team but Col should be a top 5 team, at the very least top 10. I do think all 10 teams are live here.
Right now there’s a ton of uncertainty around Cloud 9 in terms of what caliber of team they’ll become. Fortunately, Ence don’t play Vertigo, so they can avoid the map they’ve been beaten a combined 32-13 on over the past 2 days. Draftkings still seems to be struggling to price C9. Tuesday it’s Woxic’s turn on the underpriced carousel, as he joins Alex who seemingly never gets off it. Alex is practically a free square at only $4.4k. Woxic needs to do more than just show up to pay off his $5.8k price tag, but if C9 win he should get there easily, especially if he can avoid playing Vertigo, which is his worst rated map (just worse than Nuke). Floppy is still pretty cheap, and es3tag is reasonably priced as well. Because of their pricing, I don’t mind a C9 3 stack in this spot.
The C9 pricing should make Ence even lower owned than they were already going to be. I like Allu quite a bit as a pivot off of C9. I like him as the one off or paired with doto.
The Col/Gambit matchup should have a ton of ownership between the two teams. Both teams are DFS player favorites, as BlameF and Sh1ro are two of the biggest stars on the slate, and have solid supporting casts around them. In fact, calling k0nfig and Axile “supporting cast” is an insult to them, as each are stellar in their own right. I already mentioned I was surprised how close this was according to Vegas, I’m hopeful that the tight line keeps Col’s ownership down a bit. I’m going to load up on them here. My priced considered order for them is K0nfig > BlameF > Poizon > jks > Rush. I keep singing K0nfig’s praises and he keeps making me look smart. I’ll say it again, he’s been absolutely on fire really since jks joined the team. I’m going to keep riding this train until it inevitably crashes and burns, but in the meantime I’ll take all the K0nfig I can get my hands on. Poizon has also shown some life the past couple of matchups, and with jks’ tendency to disappear at times I’d rather take the salary savings for Poizon.
I’ll only have a little bit of Gambit, but I do think after 2 disappointing performances in a row and the Col matchup this could be a great slate to load up on Sh1ro. This will likely be as low of ownership as you see him at, which makes him a super interesting GPP play. Axile and Hobbit are also in play, as is Nafany if you need the extra savings.
The other 3 games I genuinely don’t know what I expect to happen. I don’t love the pricing on any of the 3 favorites really. Well, I should say I think the pricing is accurate, so I don’t see any plays that jump out. MiBR are cheap, but also coming in off of getting absolutely demolished by Liquid, going down 13-2 on both maps. I’ll have a bit of exposure to kNgV, vsm, and trk, but I much prefer the C9 value to them. I’ll have a bit of Mantuu, Valde, and ISSAA, but I prefer the studs on Col and even Gambit to them. Same goes for Faze. I’ve some Broky, Coldzera, and a bit of Rain, but nothing crazy. I do like Contact as a super low owned play. They should see the lowest ownership on the slate, possibly competing with Ence. Otto and Espiranto are both solid values, and Spinx is sitting there at $5.2k and a decent projection (we know Jordan is going to have him locked in).
The Heroic/Spirit game is an intersting one. I imagine niko is going to end up with a decent bit of ownership at only $6.4k. I personally think this is a trap, much like Xyp ended up being for Astralis on Monday. niko has really struggled of late, to the point where his projection has tanked well below his non-Borup teammates. I might have a tiny bit in Heroic stacks, but I much prefer the other 3 studs. On the Spirit side, mir projects very well and the rest of the team are pretty cheap. Idisbalance has shown signs of life lately, and chopper is down by Alex at only $4.6k. This is another nice stack, as despite Heroic being the number 2 ranked team (per HLTV’s rankings) in the world, they frequently stuggle with teams that are beneath them in the rankings. Just last week they lost to Mouz and dropped a map to Endpoint. I’ll definitely have some spirit here.
K0nfig is again my favorite captain. I expect him to be popular after Monday and with his price somehow going down over $1k despite putting up over 100 fantasy points, but on a 5 game slate it shouldn’t be an overwhelmingly high ownership number. BlameF as always is also a solid captain as is Poizon if you go the cost savings route.
Again, I won’t have a ton of Gambit but when I do I like Sh1ro at captain. He should have low ownership and as always has massive upside.
Both Alex and Woxic are again solid captains. They save you a ton of money, and let you load up the rest of your roster. I’ll have a solid amount of each, they’ll likely be my 2nd and 3rd most used captains after K0nfig.
On the other side, Allu is again an interesting pivot. He should have almost no captain ownership but if Ence win he can put up a big number.
Other captains that I’m interested in but likely won’t have a ton of include (no particular order):
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!