First off, congratulations to Navi and S1mple on winning the Major. S1mple is cementing his status as the CSGO GOAT and is truly a pleasure to watch. With that event done, we’re back to some T2/3 CS, with a 2 game slate from Pinnacle. Lock is at 7:30 am EST, and the games are:

Entropiq (79% implied win probability) vs Nemiga

Sinners (56%) vs Havu

Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues

There are a couple issues with the player pool. The simple one is that disturbed is back into the coaching role for HAVU, he isn’t playing. Don’t play him.

The less straightforward situation is with Nemiga. Lollipop21k is leaving the team. He announced it on October 31st, and from his twitter it looks like it was effectively immediately. But he’s still listed on the HLTV match page. I have no idea if he’s actually playing. This is the first game of the slate, but lock is well before the game is actually scheduled to start. There are 2 earlier games so DK is playing it safe in case those are quick and the start gets moved up. We aren’t likely to know by lock whether he’s actually playing. The safe thing to do is not play Lollipop21k.

Slate Analysis

The situation around Lollipop and Nemiga makes a Nemiga stack totally unplayable for me. They’re big underdogs anyways, but the uncertainty seals the deal for me. I suppose if you’re MME’ing, maybe 1 lineup with Lollipop in a Nemiga 3 stack is worth putting in, just in case, but I’m generally not interested in Nemiga outside of a one-off. Box is my preferred play, but iDisbalance is fine too, and a tiny bit safer since he AWPs.

On the other side, Krad is the play from Entropiq that will go under-rostered. He’s in no-man’s-land in terms of price. He’s only a little cheaper than El1an, who is the “star” of the team, but barely scores better FP/r than the players who are $1.4k (or more) cheaper than him. He should have very low rostership compared to his teammates, and is my favorite GPP play within Entropiq. I like playing him with El1an if you can make the salary work, but I particularly like playing him instead of El1an. People view El1an as the “star” of this team, but his FP/r really isn’t elite. The gap between him and the rest of the team is small enough that if a few eco rounds break the right way it’s possible that 3 players outscore him or at least score similar enough to him that his hefty salary isn’t worth paying.

In the other game, Sinners are priced pretty well. Neofrag and Zedko may be a tiny bit too cheap, but overall everything makes sense. I say that because that is very much not the case on the other side of the matchup. For whatever reason, Jemi has been slotted into the 3rd fragger spot in terms of pricing. He’s by far the bottom FP/r guy on the team. This has caused Zoree and Slowi to each be a slot lower than they should be in price. I expect this to make them somewhat popular for an underdog, but I don’t really care. Both of them are really strong plays, particularly since Nemiga are virtually unplayable.

Top Captains

3/4 teams on this slate have incredibly flat scoring, with Sinners being the lone exception. Because of the flat scoring, I don’t really feel that we need to force a high priced “stud” at captain. Instead, the mid-range to cheap guys are who I like to target. Nickelback, Lack1, Slowi, and Zoree are my favorite targets at captain, as the let you fit the best overall lineup without punting anywhere.

That said, the one time I will prioritize spending up at captain is in Sinners stacks. Neofrag and Oskar hold the top 2 spots in FP/r on the slate, and are the best pay-up captain options.

That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!

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