We’re back Saturday morning with another 3 game IEM Beijing slate. Lock is at 9:00 am EST again. The games are:
Navi (72% implied win probability) vs Mad Lions
Complexity (62%) vs Fnatic
Chaos (69%) vs New England Whalers
Saturday is another really interesting slate from a pricing and ownership perspective. The favorites are again fairly difficult to fit into lineups, and you basically have to use bottom fraggers in order to do it. Plus, Complexity only has Rush that’s cheap, so you’re pigeonholed in to either Navi bottom fraggers or Chaos bottom fraggers if you want to play all favorites. I expect the ownership to be fairly split between the two teams, as Navi are slightly bigger favorites and everyone will be loaded up on S1mple (aka playing Navi) anyways, but the players on Chaos have a bit better kill share and higher upside.
I personally will be playing at least 1 underdog (player or stack) in all of my lineup. Based on the win probabilities of the favorites, there’s only about a 30% chance all 3 win. Beyond that, I like the upside on a lot of the underdogs better than the bottom fraggers from Navi and Chaos and way better than Rush. Which underdog gets the most ownership will be an interesting case study between game watching and Vegas lines. One thing I’m fairly sure of is that it won’t be New England Whalers. For whatever reason they’re the most priced up of the underdogs. Pwnalone is $9k! He’s the most expensive player in that game and 3rd most expensive on the slate. As a whole, you only save a little bit going down from a Chaos stack to a New England Whalers stack. I like this stack as a GPP play, but unfortunately they’re so expensive you may need to pair them with another underdog (or bottom fraggers on favorites). That’s fine, but recognize that you’re looking at around a 10% chance both underdogs win based on the Vegas odds (slightly higher for Fnatic than Mad Lions). The ownership on the NEW + Fnatic/Mad Lions stack should be extremely low though (<5% would be my expectation) so I do think this is a strong GPP play.
Fnatic are likely to be the highest owned underdog, as I do think Vegas will outweigh game watchers in terms of ownership, it almost always does. Brollan and Krimz are both underpriced, and open up a lot of lineup combinations that allow S1mple and his $10.2k salary to fit. Recognize though, that many people are going to go this route, even if Fnatic don’t have crazy ownership overall, so you’ll need to pivot somewhere in your lineup. I’ll have a good amount of Fnatic, but I’ll either use them without S1mple, with New England Whalers, or use some other method to make sure I have a unique build, like leaving salary on the table.
The game watchers on this slate may go for Mad Lions as their underdog of choice. Navi has looked pretty bad of late, they recently lost twice to VP and once to Forze in CIS play, and lost twice to OG during Blast. S1mple also recently said in an interview that he doesn’t trust his teammates right now, although I’m fairly confident that wasn’t exactly news to them. Now, all of this may mean absolutely nothing as Navi will look like they could lose a pub one day and then come out and crush a top 5 team in the world the next, but overall I do think Mad Lions have a slightly better chance than their odds indicate. They’re still in the process of incorporating refrezh and Hooxi, but so far they’ve looked pretty solid with them. refrezh in particular has been stellar, going positive on every single map he’s played for Mad Lions, which consists of 10 wins and 3 losses so far. He and acoR are my favorite targets here, as acoR has also been playing great counterstrike, really since Bubz left the team. I’ll have plenty of 2 stacks of them, and I’ll mix in some Sjuush and a little roej as well. Mad Lions are my favorite underdog play on this slate, as I think the S1mple effect, which is the same as the Zywoo effect where their opponents always go underowned, should keep Mad Lions ownership quite low. I’ll pair them with Col, although this will likely be popular, and both sides of the Chaos/NEW game.
All of that said, I’m still only going to use Mad Lions in ~50% of my lineups. The other half will likely have S1mple. He’s an absolute monster, and if Navi does win it’s fairly likely he’ll have the top score on the slate. Electronic will likely go somewhat overlooked as I think most of the field will prioritize Complexity over him, which makes him a nice GPP play. For Complexity, BlameF is the clearcut top play, but then behind him it’s a toss up between jks, Poizon, and K0nfig. In situations like this, I always like to try to play the lowest owned player(s), which should be K0nfig and maybe even Poizon in this spot.
Chaos will likely see decent ownership on all 5 players, as they offer the cost savings needed to reach some of the studs on Navi and/or Col. They’ll be the favorite I stack the least (I may use one offs a good amount), as their ownership is more price driven than inherently being a good play driven. I do think MarkE could see lower ownership than his teammates as DFS players click Xeppaa above him or Leaf below him, as he doesn’t project quite as well.
Overall, I want to reiterate that I’ll have at least 1 underdog in nearly all of my lineups on this slate. Chaos is cheap enough that you can get away with all favorites, and I think too much of the field will go that route.
S1mple, as always when Zywoo isn’t on the slate with him, is the highest projected player on the slate. He is priced prohibitively though, so I likely won’t have much of him at captain. I prefer to use mostly captains from the underdogs today, as they have close to the same upside at far lower prices.
That said, I will have a bit of BlameF at captain, as the Mad Lions are the cheapest plays on the slate, and fit nicely even with BlameF’s high salary. I’ll also have a little bit of Poizon, as he’s shown that when he’s on he has immense upside.
Refrezh and acoR are my favorite captain plays on the slate. Both have 80+ point upside in a win, and both are extremely cheap. I can load the rest of my lineup with Col and/or whoever I want from the Chaos/NEW game (a super low owned Pwnalone maybe?) by using either one at captain.
Similarly, Brollan and Krimz are both strong captain plays for Fnatic. Fnatic spreads their kills out a bit more than Mad Lions, so even in a win they are slightly less likely to hit a huge score, although keep in mind they are more likely to win per the Vegas odds, but both should still put up strong point per dollar scores if they do win.
Again, I expect Chaos to be the popular pick for captains, so I’ll do my best to avoid them. Leaf in particular I expect to have pretty high captain ownership, as his cheap price helps to fit S1mple and/or Col, and he does project pretty well.
I like Bwills as a captain from New England Whalers. He’s their 2nd highest projected player, and just 1.5 points behind PwnAlone, yet costs only $6.4k (flex pricing). I’ll also have a little bit of PwnAlone himself, as again I expect his ownership to be virtually non-existent at his astronomical price.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!