It’s Semifinals day. Sadly this means also the last regular slate of the major, but it should be a great slate (for a 2-gamer). Lock is at 11:30 am EDT again and the games are:
G2 (57% implied win probability) vs Heroic
Navi (61%) vs Gambit
Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues
Player pool is correct.
People, myself included, were running all kinds of crazy lineup combinations on Friday, 2-2-2, 2-1-2-1, 3-1-1-1 and everything else you can think of. And with all that, what won the $10? A 3-3. That 3-3 used Perfecto at captain. That lineup was my 37th best projected 3-3. I played 88 lineups. There’s a reasonable chance I land on that lineup if I did my usually building instead of not forcing stacks. The lesson here? Stick to the lineup building fundamentals, there’s a reason they work.
I say that because on this slate I again expect people to go nuts with lineup combinations. There are a ton of very good players on this slate, and it feels bad to play Nexa when you could play Ax1le. But if you already have 3 Navi players and 2 G2 players, Nexa is most likely the better choice for that lineup. Now, this comes with the caveat that both of these games have closer odds than Friday’s, so I’ll still run some 3-2-1, but I won’t be running all the crazy stuff I did on Friday.
Pricing is loose on this slate. That means favorites are going to be over-rostered even more than usual. Naturally, this means I like both underdogs. I expect Gambit 3 stacks to be incredibly low rostered, as S1mple will likely be 80-90%, meaning most people will either play a Gambit 2 stack or 1 off if they play Gambit at all. The Gambit 3 stack is my favorite GPP play (don’t forget to mix in some Nafany if you run a bunch of 3 stacks).
Heroic are also a strong 3 stack, as everyone will want Niko from that game. The only problem is picking which 3 guys to stack, as all 5 are in play. Stavn, Refrezh, and Cadian are my top 3 if you make me pick, but I’ll have some Teses and Sjuush exposure as well.
When I do stack the favorites, I’ll make sure to include the 4th fragger from both teams even if I’m not forced to because of salary. That means Perfecto (who will likely see a rise in popularity after he was the top scorer on Friday’s slate, so probably not too heavy on him), and Nexa. Nexa is .01 FP/r behind Amanek over the past month, he’s really stepped his game up on LAN.
As I mentioned, pricing is loose. With contests significantly smaller than Friday I’m going to be purely focused on raw points. That means my captain pool will be:
Even though I’ll technically have the most Heroic players in my pool, I’ll probably use them the least, as their likelihood of hitting their upside is lower. I’m also intentionally leaving B1t, Electronic, and Perfecto off the list. Sure, their recent numbers have been great, but Navi has been steamrolling people. They won’t (I hope) steamroll Gambit, so I’d expect the numbers to revert back to much closer to the 3 month numbers.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!