Draftkings has made some interesting choices to cut this slate down to a 5 gamer on Monday. There were 2 more Dreamhack Masters games that started at 7 am EST and a Flashpoint game at 9 am EST that they could’ve included but I guess those are…too early? I am glad they didn’t include the NA games though, as there’s been all kinds of roster turnover that I doubt DK would’ve gotten completely right. Lock ended up at 10:00 am EST, and the games are:
Astralis (85% implied win probability) vs Godsent
Mouz (54%) vs Liquid
Big (81%) vs Envy
Gambit (51%) vs Cloud9
Complexity (81%) vs Ence
This is kind of a weird slate. There are 3 projected blowouts and 2 coinflips, nothing where there’s a team with a moderate edge in the 60-70% range. Pricing also pretty much reflects the odds, with the 3 huge favorites priced up and everyone in the coinflips priced in a fairly middling manner.
Let me start by saying I’m not going to be running anyone from Godsent, Ence, or Envy. If I had to pick one team to not cross off, it would be Envy, as I think Big are the weakest of the 3 favorites and Envy are more of an unknown than the other two. Sure you can make a case where you get a huge upset and your guy(s) pop off, but on a nice 5 game slate I really don’t think you need to.
My main focus in my lineups will be on the two coinflips. I’ll have a lot of all 4 teams. The studs are all priced down relative to the studs on the big favorites. However, the coinflip doesn’t actually lower their upside at all, it just makes them more likely to hit their floor and therefore be more risky. However, if I play Sh1ro and Axile and Gambit wins, it’s likely they put up as good of a (if not better) score as Xantares and Syrson, and at a combined savings of over $2k. This obviously means I’ll be able to fit theoretically better plays in the rest of my lineups.
I am going to tilt my ownership slightly towards Gambit and Liquid in those games. The reason I’m going to do that is that C9 and Ropz are underpriced. Ownership will likely skew towards them, leaving Liquid and Gambit a bit underowned. I’m not sure if Sh1ro will get the S1mple/Zywoo treatment where his ownership is always elevated quite yet, I think more people will see those cheap C9 price tags and get drawn to that.
Of the large favorites, I think ownership will go Col > Astralis > Big. jks and Poizon are priced very reasonably, and I expect each to have pretty high ownership. Xyp for Astralis is also underpriced and will likely garner plenty of attention. I like the Astralis studs in particular in this matchup, as they should see low ownership relative to BlameF and K0nfig. While Big should be the lowest owned, they also haven’t really been playing that well of late, and like I said earlier are the heavy favorite I think are likeliest to disappoint. I’ll still have some, but that’s why I prefer Astralis to them in tournaments.
Much like in the flex, I like the options from the two coinflip games best at captain. I like Sh1ro quite a bit, as his captain ownership should be fairly low on this 5 game slate. Similarly, for Liquid, Elige’s price is also not too bad relative to the other star players on the slate. Ropz is likely to be the chalk from these 2 games, but again on a 5 game slate his captain ownership shouldn’t be that crazy, so I like him a decent amount. C9 are a tough team to choose a captain from right now, but the basement prices of Alex and Floppy let you get some pretty stacked lineups. I like both of them a good amount at captain.
From the heavy favorites, I again like Device and Dupreeh if you can afford them. I also like K0nfig quite a lot. I imagine most people will find the extra salary to get up to BlameF or save the money and go jks or even Poizon captain. As I’ve now mentioned several times, for whatever reason it seems like adding jks has unlocked K0nfig. He’s been on an absolute tear, and certainly has highest score on the slate upside.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!