After a pretty exciting start to group play on Monday, Group C continues on Tuesday. We have another 2 game slate, and a couple of matchups that are likely to be overreacted to based on Monday’s performances. Lock is at 10:30 am EST again, and the games are:
Astralis (64% implied win probability) vs G2
Furia (76%) vs MiBR
On Monday, the biggest surprise was MiBR. They played really well, routinely winning aim duels and also looking surprisingly coordinated. This was incredibly close to being a 2-0 in their favor. Astralis did manage to turn it on for map 3, and took a one-sided affair by a score of 16-5. Meanwhile, the new and improved G2 (with Amanek playing over Jackz) looked really solid in a 2-0 victory over Furia. Furia mostly played pretty well aside from 1 round on CT side Nuke where they had control of the bomb in lobby in a 4v2 with 15 seconds left and somehow lost the round. G2 were just better, and even that round I just mentioned was won on the back of G2 hitting all of their shots. What will this mean for Tuesday?
If you go by the Vegas odds, it looks like the G2 performance meant very little while the MiBR performance meant a decent amount. I was a bit surprised to see Astralis as such large favorites after how much they struggled and how good G2 looked. I expect G2 to carry decent ownership on Tuesday, even with a relatively low implied win probability.
On the other hand, I think the market may have overreacted a little bit to MiBR’s performance. If they had gotten swept easily by Astralis we probably would’ve seen them with only a 15% or so (maybe even less) implied win probability instead of the 24% that they have. How they looked on Monday will also definitely earn them a bit of ownership on Tuesday. It is worth noting though, that pricing is loose, so you aren’t forced down to them like a good amount of lineup constructions were on Monday.
Personally, I think Monday will likely be MiBR’s high water mark for this tournament/their time in Europe as a whole. I think Astralis were caught a bit off guard by the aggression, especially since there was literally 0 film to watch of this MiBR squad playing together. Plus they were reincorporating Xyp9x into the lineup, who definitely looked a bit sluggish. Furia shouldn’t have either of these problems. They obviously haven’t made any substitutions, and will be much less likely to be caught off guard by the aggressive Brazilian style seeing as they are…also Brazilian. I fully expect Furia to smash in this spot. The only player on MiBR I’ll be considering on Tuesday is again kNgV-. He is clearly being set up (ironically by himself since he’s the IGL) to be the star player here. There were multiple instances of Lucas dropping him guns and playing with only a Deagle when kNgV- couldn’t afford to buy. Even on Inferno where they lost 16-5 he managed to go 16-14. All that said, the reason I liked him as a one-off on Monday was because he saved you over $1,000 from the cheapest Astralis player and enabled some unique lineup constructions. On Tuesday, he’s $600 more than Vini and only $400 less than arT. I much prefer to 3 stack Furia in this spot, but may have a couple of lineups with kNgV- to differentiate. All 5 players from Furia are in play for me, and with the looser pricing they should see a flatter ownership, so I’ll be spreading out my exposure as well.
While the new version of G2 looked strong, I’m not quite ready to crown them just yet. Plus, for all we know they could sub Jackz in for Amanek and play completely differently. Amanek played great on Monday, but G2 said they were planning on seeing which player looks better for the rest of 2020, which means Jackz is going to play at some point. He could very well get his shot on Tuesday. Fortunately, this is the 1st game of the day so we should know ahead of time. Neither Jackz nor Bubz is on the slate, so even if either does play (Bubz playing is highly unlikely) all we can do is make sure to get Amanek/whoever Bubz is in for out of our lineups. This is the game where I really expect the overreaction from Monday to happen. Astralis will likely still be higher owned, but it will be to a much less extent than a 64% implied win probability favorite with loose pricing normally would be. I’ll be loading up on them here, hoping to stay one step ahead of the field relative to G2 (I had a ton of them on Monday). Xyp9x had a ton of assists on Monday, 21 when you take away his flash assists. This to me was a sign of rust, as he wasn’t able to finish kills crisply or cleanly. I expect that rust to fall off sooner rather than later, and he’s my favorite play on Astralis at only $6.6k. Magisk is coming off of a big game, so he’ll likely have the highest ownership on the team given that his price is only $7.4k. I’m going to prioritize Device and Dupreeh ahead of him in my lineups, as any of them could put up the highest score of the trio, so I want to go where the ownership is lowest. My prioritization of Astralis will be: Xyp9x > Device = Dupreeh > Magisk > Glaive.
If I do run G2, I don’t expect a repeat performance from Amanek. I’ll be Xing him out of my player pool, and I’ll also have very little Nexa. Somewhat predictably, Nexa’s role seems to be the most changed with the addition of Niko, and he ended Monday with only 30 frags across the 2 maps (also only 27 deaths). Niko, Hunter, and KennyS are all solid plays, but again I’ll be mostly on the Astralis side.
Since I’m going to be running mostly 3/3’s with the two favorites, one tactic I’ll be using to differentiate my lineups is leaving salary on the table. With both teams, we know the “bottom” fraggers are capable of putting up big numbers, so don’t be afraid to leave $2k, $3k, or even more salary leftover.
Both Astralis and Furia are nightmares to figure out from a captain perspective. The only player I feel comfortable eliminating from my captain pool on either team is Glaive, as like I mentioned in Monday’s article, he’s the most likely person to bottom frag for Astralis.
I expect Magisk to come in with high ownership, so I’ll also be mostly fading him. Other than those two, it’s pick your poison from the other 8. Hen1 and Device being priced all the way up may suppress their ownership a tiny bit, so I’ll try to get to them when I can. I’ll also leave a bit of money on the table to captain arT and Vini in a few lineups. They both have shown they can absolutely go off, and it’s most likely to happen against inferior competition. Prior to Monday, nearly everyone would’ve said this version of MiBR is inferior competition.
In G2 lineups, all 3 of Niko, Hunter, and KennyS make for solid captain choices. I expect that as Niko gets comfortable, we’re going to see some monster performances from him in this G2 lineup. I’m not sure that will be quite yet though, so I won’t be loading up myself.
That’s it from me, good luck on Tuesday!