I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! We’re back with a 2 game slate on Saturday. Lock is at 10:30 am EST and the games are:
Liquid (59% implied win probability) vs MiBR
Complexity (70%) vs Cloud9
Kind of ironic that we have 4 orgs that have traditionally been NA/SA all playing each other in Europe, but here we are. Pricing is loose enough that you can comfortably pair any of the 2 teams together with only making minimal sacrifices. This will almost undoubtedly lead to Col being the mega-chalk and Liquid and MiBR about evenly mixed.
To be unique with a Complexity lineup will be difficult, but maybe not totally impossible. The most obvious way is by not playing BlameF. Now, it’s certainly unlikely that Col win and BlameF isn’t a top 3 scorer, but it’s definitely not impossible. K0nfig, jks, and Poizon are all capable of putting up big numbers and it could be a case of BlameF doing fine but those 3 simply doing better. The most likely scenario this happens in is if they win in dominant fashion. Another way is to leave money on the table. And this doesn’t necessarily have to come from the Col side. What I mean by that is, if you get to your last lineup spot and you have enough money left for Naf, maybe play Grim or Twistzz instead. Again, this takes you away from building “optimally” but your lineup should be duped fewer times.
The real question on this slate though, is do you think C9 can take Col down. They did just beat NiP, who may not have quite the talent level of Col, but are a very solid team in their own right. Since there’s only 2 games, it’s not like no one else is going to have the idea to play C9, but they should have by far the lowest ownership on the slate. I’m not sure if they can beat Col, they may come out and get absolutely smacked. What I am sure of, is that C9 lineups put me in a better position to win big if they win than Col lineups do if Col wins. For that reason, I’ll be running a high percentage of my lineups as C9 lineups. All 5 of their players are in play, with Woxic and Floppy being the priorities for me.
As for the Liquid/MiBR game, I don’t think there’s much of an edge to be gained here. The one small edge I would say is trk from MiBR. He’s priced like he’s equivalent to Leo and Lucas, but in reality he’s a decent amount better. I’ve mentioned this before, but both Leo and Lucas’ (and vsm’s for that matter, but his 1 month stats are also good) 3 month stats take into account playing lesser competition in Brazil. Prioritizing trk within MiBR should give a small edge over people who view him Leo and Lucas as the same (fwiw Leo has been a decent bit above Lucas as well, but clearly 4th). The Liquid side is pretty straightforward. Their prices are in basically the right order, I don’t really think there’s much of an edge within the team from Liquid. You could lineups with no Elige as it’s a fairly similar situation to BlameF, where he’ll normally be in the top 3 if they win but there can be exceptions to that rule.
As I’m running a lot of C9 stacks, I’ll be prioritizing them at captain as well. I like Woxic and Floppy each quite a bit, and I’ll also have a little es3tag.
BlameF should be the highest owned captain on the slate, and with good reason. I’ll be under the field here (as I will on virtually all of Col) in attempt to be different. I do think K0nfig is an interesting captain play. My hope is with jks back down to just above him in price k0nfig’s captain ownership will stay low. I’ll be prioritizing him ahead of both jks and poizon, as he’s been great over the past month plus since jks joined the team.
From Liquid it’s Elige or Naf for me. Grim and Twistzz are mildly interesting, but I doubt I’ll have much of them.
kNgV, trk, and vsm are all solid captain plays for MiBR. I particularly like kNgV and trk, as vsm has been seeing elevated ownership recently. kNgV is still the best player on this team, and trk has a good shot to outscore vsm in a win. Again, I’ll have some of all 3, but vsm will be last on my list.
That’s it for me, good luck Saturday!