After Monday off from Tier 1 tournaments, Blast Premier Fall 2020 Showdown kicks off on Tuesday. We have 3 games, two in Europe and one in I think technically South America. Lock is at 7:30 am EST and the games are:
Complexity (76% implied win probability) vs Sprout
VP (54%) vs Spirit
Furia (91%) vs Isurus
This slate is super straightforward to build the “optimal” lineup. Furia are absolutely massive favorites, and Complexity are also huge favorites. For cash, running a 3/3 of those teams is probably the safest bet, and you can make some solid 3/3 lineups from those teams. We’ll dive in a bit into those teams to see if we can get an edge, while also looking at other options.
Let’s start with Complexity. What we’ve seen since jks has joined has been K0nfig really stepping his game up. He’s actually passed BlameF in one month fp/round, granted it is a small sample size. He’s my favorite play out of he, jks, and Poizon. Most DFS players, myself included in the past, have basically viewed those 3 as equal but in reality k0nfig has separated himself from jks lately. On the flip side we have Poizon. Poizon has also separated himself from jks and K0nfig….but not in the right direction. He’s fallen so far that his fp/r over the past month are actually lower than Rush. It’s actually the lowest on the whole slate when you take away Furia, who have only played 5 maps over the past month (and went 1-4 in Europe on those maps). Poizon just seems off, I don’t think it’s something a somewhat easier matchup will fix. Since it’s only a 3 game slate I’ll have a bit of him, but he’ll be my lowest used player on Complexity.
Sprout have shown they can compete with T1 teams, although they only seem to be able to actually beat their fellow countrymen in Big. I don’t expect them to win this matchup as in my opinion the new roster of Col should be a top 5 team, but if you are running more than 10 or so lineups it’s worth having some exposure to sprout. They’re cheap enough to let you play the more expensive Furia players, which stacking multiple of could be unique on this slate, more on that in a minute. Within Sprout, Dycha and faven project slightly better than Snatchie, but Snatchie is likely a better value.
arT, Vini, and Kscerato are likely to be the chalk within Furia, who should be the chalkiest team. All 3 are underpriced, and I’m not going to try to talk you off of any of them. There are rumors swirling about Hen1 getting benched at the end of the year for issues outside of the game. I don’t know if that will affect his performance, and if it does whether he’ll be checked out or fired up trying to show Furia they are making a bad decision. He and Yuurih will likely carry decent ownership, but should be lower than the other 3 members of Furia. Lineups that use both of them will almost definitely be unique.
We’ve seen Furia lose as 90+% favorites, but I’m not counting on it here. I’ll be running 117 lineups for the $10, so I’ll have maybe 5-10 with Isurus stacks, but not any more than that. If you’re in 20 max, I wouldn’t bother running any Isurus. All 5 of their players score roughly the same so any of them are usable if needed.
The final (not in order of time, but for my writeup purposes) game is VP vs Spirit. This game is as even as it gets, and both teams have reasonable pricing. I expect ownership to tilt ever so slightly to VP, but mir may be the most owned player from this game. Behind him, the other 4 players all project fairly evenly, so I’ll mix my exposures to all of them. For VP, Yekindar is a bit overpriced, which should keep his ownership down as everyone loads up on Col, Furia, and Mir/the cheaper VP players. He’s probably my favorite play on the slate outside of K0nfig. I’m not going to lock him or anything, but I imagine I’ll come in well over the field on him. Jame, Buster, and Qikert are all priced reasonable, and each should see a fair amount of ownership. Even Sanji’s stats haven’t been that bad lately, but I’ll be passing on him in this spot, save for in a couple of my 117 lineups. Qikert has been struggling recently, but his 3 month fp/r is just as good as Buster’s. I like him as a way to offset Yekindar’s salary, as I expect more people will go Jame + Buster if they run a VP 2 stack.
k0nfig is also my favorite captain if you can afford him. At $8k (flex price), he’s not super expensive, so it shouldn’t be that hard to make him fit. mir is also a viable captain at only $8.2k (flex). I’m hopeful that his, Jame’s and Kscerator’s pricing will keep K0nfig’s ownership from ballooning out of control. Jame is a fine play in his own right. Again, I’m going to try to get up to Yekindar but at $8.8k his price starts to get prohibitive.
All 3 of BlameF, Yuurih, and Hen1 should have pretty low captain ownership because of their prices. When I run Sprout lineups I’ll look to get some of Yuurih and Hen1 at captain. Blame will be harder to fit as I’d like to use him outside of just with Isurus, but you really have to sacrifice elsewhere in your lineup to do so. Maybe a spirit stack without Mir or Qikert + Buster can get you a lineup with Blame at captain that you can feel good about.
Vini is likely to be pretty chalky, as is Kscerato. arT may come in a bit lower as people either opt to save more on Vini or pay a few hundred more for Kscerato. arT is my favorite captain play of the 3 cheaper players on Furia, I’ll have a good bit of him.
In Sprout stacks, Dycha, faven, or snatchie make sense as captain, and should see virtually no ownership. This is a $10 GPP only play, but I’ll have a bit of exposure here.
That’s it from me, good luck on Tuesday!