Saturday brings us another 5 game slate between IEM and Flashpoint. Both tournaments are moving further along, so the games are really starting to get interesting now. Lock is again at 8:00 am EST and the games are:
Big (75% implied win probability) vs MiBR
Navi (54%) vs G2
VP (57%) vs OG
Vitality (53%) vs Complexity
EG (80%) vs Chaos
Before we jump in, a quick note on Vitality and G2. Vitality subs by map, Nivera (who is not on the slate) goes in for Misutaaa on Dust 2 and Shox on Inferno. I truly have no idea what Complexity will pick ban. When they previously played Col banned Inferno and Vitality picked Dust 2. Col ended up losing that series so who knows if they switch it up here. They seem to be fairly opponent specific when it comes to their pick ban, and one of the hardest teams for me to predict. That takes Misutaaa out of the pool for me, and Shox as well. I wouldn’t have much Misutaaa anyways, and Shox just isn’t that great of a play to risk him getting benched for a map of the series. G2, on the other hand, appear to be rolling with Jackz for the entirety of this tournament. Don’t play Amanek. Jackz is safe to play, but also super unsafe in the sense that he’s a terrible fantasy play. Anyways on to the slate…
EG are super underpriced as a team. Only Brehze is priced up appropriately. This will likely cause ownership to be concentrated on them as a team. However, unlike the previous slates where EG was playing truly inferior teams, Chaos should at least give EG somewhat competitive maps. I don’t think EG are as locked in as the top scoring team on the slate as they have been previously, although they are definitely the safest team on the slate. Don’t get me wrong, they’ll be my most owned team, but I wouldn’t be shocked if I came in under the field on them.
Complexity are also likely to come in a bit overowned. This is a situation that’s ironically similar to the situation Big was in against this very same Complexity team today. Col are underpriced relative to their odds, which will likely lead to spiked ownership, ownership much higher than their odds will dictate. I’ll mostly be on the Vitality side here, with Zywoo plus a bit of RpK and apEX.
I expect Big to come in underowned. They were a massive letdown on Friday as Col stomped them, and now they are back to being priced up again. They just beat this MiBR team in 3 maps, but both maps they won were 16-2. I don’t expect the maps to be quite as heavily in Big’s favor Saturday, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get the 2-0 here. They’re my favorite GPP stack. I’ll be prioritizing Syrson and Xantares, with Tabsen slightly edging out K1to for 3rd, as he’s shown a few signs of life lately.
On the other side of that matchup, trk and kNgV are underpriced. If they do manage to take a map and maybe have 16-12 losses instead of 16-2 on the other two, I would expect that at least one of those two pay off their salaries. I likely won’t stack much if at all here, but I do like each as a one-off.
I’ll have roughly even exposure to both sides of the Navi/G2 game. I honestly have no idea who I like to win here, as Navi are the most hot and cold team out there. Friday they were very hot, dismantling Astralis in two quick maps, but will that continue on Saturday? Who knows.
Lastly, VP are a bit underpriced outside of Yekindar, so I’ll have a decent amount of them. I like Jame and Buster at their price points quite a bit. On the OG side, I’ll have a little bit of everyone as I think they’re priced about right in this matchup. I’ll definitely have more VP though.
With all the studs on this slate it’s hard to narrow it down for the captain slot. I actually like playing a mid range player at captain, Ethan, Jame, Cerq, and Buster are my favorites, to be able to maybe squeeze in an extra stud. Of course, you can’t go wrong with Zywoo, S1mple, or Brehze either.
I expect BlameF to have quite a bit of ownership as he’s kind of between the mid range and the studs, and I’ll likely come in under the field here, just like with Complexity as a whole.
Xantares and Syrson are interesting pivots, although it’s tough to captain them with all the players who are priced similarly and project so much better. I’ll have a bit here, but I’ll mostly be using them in the flex.
Lastly, I’m also going to have a bit of trk and kNgV captain to really try to fit studs in the rest of my lineup. If trk can get to 55 even in a loss that’s a strong point per dollar score and those savings could end up mattering on this slate.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!