NA is back on Friday, so the slate is back up to a 5 gamer. Lock is at 8:00 am EST again, and the games are:
OG (65% implied win probability) vs Gen.G
Complexity (57%) vs Big
Mad Lions (52%) vs Fnatic
Heroic (54%) vs Vitality
Liquid (91%) vs Triumph
This is a really interesting slate with a lot of potentially awesome matchups…and also an NA game. We have two rematches, Gen.G just stomped OG last week, and Mad Lions and Fnatic have actually played twice in the last couple weeks, with Mad Lions winning 2-1 both times. Additionally, we have Big and Vitality both as underdogs, which is unusual to see for either team frankly. There some super soft pricing in a few places, which will likely lead to fairly concentrated ownership in a couple spots.
Before we really dive in, on quick note on Vitality. As far as I’m aware, Nivera is still only playing the same two maps. On Dust 2 he subs in for Misutaaa, and on Inferno he subs in for Shox. In the “who do we leave out of the player pool today roulette” DK picked Shox, so we don’t have to worry about playing him. Heroic perma ban Dust 2, which takes Nivera out of the player pool, and makes Misutaaa safe to play. He’s still not exactly a great play that I’m going to jump all over, but you can leave him in the player pool with the knowledge that he should play the entire series unless Heroic suddenly change their bans or Vitality suddenly add more maps that Nivera plays on.
Anyways, on to the bulk of the slate…
The first spot that caught my eye and I’m sure will catch everyone else’s was Mad Lions. Despite beating this same Fnatic team twice in the past 10 days, DK still has them priced like an underdog. acoR and Refrezh are both far to cheap. From watching the first two matchups, I do think Mad are the better team, and frankly should have swept Fnatic in both series. Even though acoR and Refrezh will be chalk, they are in my opinion good chalk and I’ll be rolling out plenty of each. acoR is averaging the 2nd most fantasy points per round over the last 3 months on the slate, trailing only Zywoo. I’ll have a bit or Roej and Sjuush mixed in, but they are a distant 3rd/4th behind the duo of acoR and Refrezh. Brollan and Krimz do make for an interesting GPP pivot stack, as they aren’t exorbitantly priced themselves and should see very low ownership.
The next spot that caught my eye was Big. I can’t remember the last time they were this cheap, as Syrson is the most expensive at $7.2k. Big did take this series with a clean 2-0 last time out, but I do think Col are the more talented team here. Vegas seems to agree as Col has been installed as small favorites. Pricing makes it seem like Col are large favorites though. I think Big will likely end up being overowned in this spot, and fading them will be one of the main ways I differentiate myself on this slate. I’ll have a little bit of exposure in MME, but well under the field.
On the other side, I don’t think Col will be super low owned, but the cheap prices of Big will likely cause them to come in a bit underowned. BlameF is one of my favorite plays on the slate, and I like K0nfig quite a bit as a stacking partner. He doesn’t have quite as much name value as jks or the DFS attractiveness of Poizon on his AWP, but he’s actually been their 2nd best scorer since jks joined the roster. Poizon has really struggled of late, dipping below even Rush on his 1 month fp/r. Whether you read this as he’s off or due for positive regression to his averages will determine what you do with him here. I’ll definitely have some of each of Col’s top 4 members, and maybe just maybe a little bit of Rush, who has really stepped his game up over the past month.
The last spot that jumped out at me in terms of pricing was Heroic. I was a little surprised they were favorites against Vitality, and they aren’t quite as cheap as Big, but all 5 members of Heroic are under $8k. The Zywoo effect should keep them lower owned than Big, and I think this could be a nice spot to stack them. Recently, Stavn has been the best fantasy performer, then Teses, then Cadian. I’ll have some of each of them, plus a bit of niko, although he’s dropped off a bit in fp/r lately.
On the Vitality side I already mentioned that Nivera is unplayable due to Dust 2 likely being banned and Shox isn’t on the slate. Unfortunately, this means there isn’t a stacking partner for Zywoo that I’m a fan of. If I had to pick one I’d probably play Misutaaa as he should have the lowest ownership with the field scared of sub risk and he’s also the cheapest. However, I’m most likely to just play solo Zywoo. Kind of like S1mple on Thursday, with Vitality as underdogs and a plethora of other high end options, this could be as low owned as we’ll see Zywoo, which likely still means 30-40%.
The OG vs Gen.G rematch is an interesting one. In Gen.G’s first time out with this 5 as a roster they came out and absolutely stomped OG. They then showed it might not have entirely been a fluke by taking a map off of VP. While I don’t expect this to lead to the field loading up on Gen.G as they are still, and rightfully, large underdogs in this spot (with maybe one exception, more on that in a second) it could suppress ownership on OG. OG are a great GPP stack on this slate, as they are quite a bit cheaper than they were in this spot last week.
On the other side that one spot that could get a lot of ownership is Kreaz. He has really strong stats from his first 2 games with Gen.G as well as his last couple months in the T3 EU scene. I’m a bit torn in this spot myself. Kreaz struggled when he played for Syman gaming, but I’ll be honest I have no idea what his role was for that team. His recent stats and performance as a part of Gen.G so far make him look very enticing at his $5.4k price. I’m likely to go here a good amount if I don’t play OG in that lineup. I’ll also have some stacks with Koosta and/or BnTet.
Thankfully, Draftkings has priced Liquid wayyyy up, so they should come in and completely break the slate like EG has the past couple of times they’ve played inferior teams. I do think this line is a tiny bit too far in Liquid’s favor, but I do think they should be 85% or so favorites. Because they’re so expensive they may actually end up going a bit underowned. I’ll have plenty of Elige here, and will pair him with some NAF, Twistzz, and even a bit of Stewie in stacks. Grim should pretty much be accurately projected across the industry now that he’s been with Liquid for over 3 months, but I still prefer Twistzz of the two as he’s likely to garner less ownership. Junior may be playable as a one-off on the other side, but I don’t really think you need to go there on this slate with plenty of value to be found elsewhere. I’m not interested in anyone else on Triumph.
acoR is far and away my favorite captain on the slate. I already mentioned he only trails Zywoo in fp/r over the past 3 months, and he has as high of upside as anyone on the slate. All that for $6.8k (flex price). Sign me up. He’ll likely have decent ownership, but with so many options on the slate it shouldn’t be that crazy. Refrezh is also worth a look as he’s shown he’s capable of being the top fragger.
From high end plays BlameF and Elige are my favorites. Blame should be pretty low owned with the masses likely flocking towards Big, and Elige may go a tiny bit overlooked as he’s the most expensive player on the slate. There’s plenty of value to get to both guys here. Of course Zywoo is also a fine play on the high end and I’ll definitely have some of him as well.
Stavn sticks out to me as a strong play in the upper mid range, and I’ll have a bit of him and Cadian. Stavn actually has the highest fp/r over the past month on the slate outside of the NA game (where both teams have a very small sample size).
I’ll have a bit of Valde, ISSAA, and possibly Mantuu from OG, as they should see very low ownership. On the other side I’ll use a little bit of Kreaz captain in order to really jam in studs in the rest of my lineup.
That’s it for me, good luck Friday!