After a couple of days off for both tournaments, IEM and Flashpoint are back on Thursday with 4 total games between the two. The slate locks at 8:00 am EST, and the game are:
Fnatic (82% implied win probability) vs Dignitas
G2 (61%) vs Faze
Forze (52%) vs MiBR
Astralis (65%) vs Navi
Fnatic are the only big favorites on this slate, with the rest of the dogs outside of Dignitas having at least 35% implied odds. Pricing as a whole is a bit looser than we’ve seen lately, as no one is priced above $9.4k, and only 3 players are above $9k. There’s a couple of teams that are fairly underpriced as a whole, and that will likely lead to fairly concentrated ownership.
The first spot I wanted to touch on is the Forze vs MiBR game. Forze are the ever so slight favorites, yet they are priced like underdogs. Xsepower is only $7.2k and he’s the most expensive on the team. I expect him in particular to be chalky, and ownership on Fl1t at $6.8k will likely also be high. MiBR are almost as low priced, with the main difference being that kNgV is priced up at $8.6k. This will likely cause more people to opt for the Forze side as they’ll want to play studs from their other teams and Xsepower enables that better than kNgV. I like MiBR a lot in tournaments as this game is basically a coinflip yet Forze are likely to have significantly higher ownership. If you do go MiBR remember that trk is slightly underprojected because of his former role within MiBR while vsm, leo, and lucas are slightly overprojected because of their play within Brazil. trk is one of my favorite plays, as his price hasn’t caught up to his new role in this team, and his ownership hasn’t either.
The other big spot I wanted to touch on is Astralis. Now, with S1mple on the other side they likely won’t get quite as much ownership as they otherwise would, but make no mistake they are underpriced here. DK clearly can’t figure out what to do with Xyp9x, who they’ve bumped back up to most expensive on the team after a couple of days at the bottom. He still hasn’t really put it all together since returning. He frequently has high assist totals, and I’m not talking flash assists here, which to me signals his aim just isn’t quite there (aka he isn’t finishing his kills). I do think that will come back with time, but for Thursday I’m only using Xyp as a GPP leverage play. My focus will be on Device and Dupreeh, as both are underpriced here. Device is in strong form of late, and Dupreeh is coming off of a monster performance, and has in my opinion been the 2nd most consistent contributor for these team, even going back to when es3tag was playing. I’ll have a little big of Magisk and Glaive, but I actually prefer the Xyp ownership play to either of them. Neither has a ton of upside with Magisk IGL’ing and Glaive quite frankly still fragging like an IGL.
If Navi manages to upset Astralis, it will likely be on the back of a huge game from S1mple. This will likely be as low of ownership as we ever get on him, so if you think he’s fully matchup proof this is as good a time as any to take a stand. As for stacking partners, it’s only electronic for me, I have no interest in anyone else on Navi.
Fnatic are the biggest favorites on the slate, by quite a bit too. I’m not really buying it though. This Fnatic team just isn’t very good right now. Do they just need to get back on LAN to reclaim their form as one of the top teams in the world? I’m not sure but either way Flashpoint is still online CS. Going off of a common opponent in C0ntact, both teams performed roughly the same. And Fnatic didn’t even have to deal with Spinx having the game of his life. I’m not saying I expect Dignitas to win here, but I do expect them to outperform their odds. I do not expect a Fnatic blowout here. For MME’ing I’d still have some, but they are my least favorite of the 3 real favorites (not counting Forze as a favorite). On the Dignitas side, I’m very interested in Hallzerk. He constantly goes positive in losses, so there’s even some safety built in if Fnatic does come out and win easily, and there’s 70+ point upside for only $5.4k. If you want to get a little nuts you could even stack him with Forest. This would allow you to potentially get away from the Forze/MiBR game entirely, which would certainly make your lineup unique.
Last but not least there is G2 vs Faze. Niko gets a shot at a revenge game against his old team while they collectively get a shot at him. From a talent perspective, G2 should easily take this series. However, I will say that I think they’ve looked significantly better with Amanek in the lineup than with Jackz. Even if it takes a little longer to get the W with Jackz than it would Amanek, that could actually be good for fantasy, as it gives Niko, Hunter, and KennyS more time to pile up kills and fantasy points. G2 are my favorite stack on the day, and I’ll be loading up on them in this spot. I don’t mind Broky and/or Coldzera on the other side, but I won’t have much as most of my focus will be on G2.
Thursday should be just about as low of captain ownership as we ever see for S1mple. If you aren’t stacking Astralis, S1mple is a great option at captain. With Dignitas and Forze/Mibr value there’s plenty of room to fit him. The other high end captain I like is Niko. I expect him to be on his A game against his former team.
Both Device and Xsepower are likely to see decently heavy ownership in the mid range, but for good reason. Both are strong captain plays and with plenty of options that ownership shouldn’t be prohibitive. I’ll have some of each.
On the low end, I like trk as well as Hallzerk. Playing each one lets you really load up on the rest of your lineup.
Those are my favorite captain plays, and that’s it for me. Good luck on Thursday!