With Flashpoint off until the 19th, we are back to a 3 game IEM only slate on Monday. Lock is back to 9 am EST and the games are:
G2 (57% implied win probability) vs Mouz
Big (51%) vs NiP
Triumph (51%) vs TeamOne
Pricing is super tight on this 3 gamer. 11 players, mind you there are only 30 total who are actually going to play, are priced at $8.0k or higher, and 6 are $9.0k or higher. This is going to create a situation where we are basically forced into a couple of bottom fraggers, or at least players priced like bottom fraggers.
Before we really jump in, I wanted to quickly mention the G2 situation again. If Amanek were to play he’d definitely be attractive on this slate at $4.0k. However, G2 seems to really want to give each he and Jackz a fair shot. Amanek got the entire last tournament, so unless G2 decide they’ve seen enough, I’d expect Jackz to get this entire tournament. Fortunately, they do have the 1st game tomorrow so we should know before lock who is in. I’d suggest registering with lineups assuming Jackz is playing and building backups in case Amanek is announced as in shortly before lock. Now, on to the players who know will be playing…
With the pricing so tight and the odds so close across all 3 series, it doesn’t seem like there should be a ton of chalk. However, I think we might see ownership tilt towards Big in particular, and also towards G2. Let me explain why. For starters, even when they’re underpriced, NiP are a tough team to target for DFS. They spread their kills across all 5 players, and even when they win they often don’t score all that well in DFS. Now they’re priced up, which makes them even more unattractive. On top of that, K1to has a couple of big (no pun intended) games recently, and is now all the way down at $5.8k. I expect recency bias, coupled with him projected as a decent value most places, to make him a popular play on Monday. Once you have him in your lineup, it makes sense to add someone else from Big, and suddenly you have Big coming in at pretty high ownership.
As for G2, it’s basically just the Niko affect. Niko is the best player on this slate, and by far the most popular from a DFS perspective. Much like K1to, I expect him to pull ownership to the rest of his team as well. KennyS is also a bit underpriced at $7.0k, especially relative to everyone else’s pricing on the slate.
With how expensive G2 and Big outside of K1to are, you’re likely to need more salary savings than just K1to. My expectation is most people will turn towards T1 for this. The biggest reason is prt. I have no idea why he’s priced so low. Sure he’s technically the 4th best fantasy player of late from T1, but they all have similar (and all pretty high in terms of raw kills, a product of the aggressive Brazilian style) kill share. On any given day anyone can step up and be the top fragger for this team. I expect his egregious pricing to draw quite a bit of ownership to T1 as a whole as players look for savings to fit G2 (Niko specifically) and Big.
So, how do I plan to attack this slate? By doing almost the exact opposite of everything I just described. I’m going to be heavily on Mouz and Triumph, with a bit of NiP sprinkled in. The Junior, Penny, Moose 3 stack from Triumph is one of my favorites on the slate, and I’ll be using it quite a bit. From Mouz, Ropz is the obvious play, but Frozen and even Bymas have been coming into their own lately. I like Frozen better but I’ll use some of each with Ropz and maybe the occasional 3 stack. From NiP Nawwk is my favorite play, but Plopski is also fairly cheap and even twist at $4.8k could be a useful cost savings.
I will still have some of T1, as I do think prt is straight up mispriced (you can also argue Moose is on the other side), and don’t want to completely ignore that.
Penny and Junior are my favorite captains on the slate. They’re kind of in the mid range, and allow you some flexibility in your build. Both will likely have a bit of ownership, but it shouldn’t be anything too crazy with Niko and Big on the slate.
When I go away from Triumph, I’ll likely go to Ropz as my captain. He’s super consistent, and actually has the best stats of anyone on the slate, even better than Niko. That’s extra impressive considering Mouz’ win rate isn’t even very good over the past few months.
I’ll also try to get a bit of Nawwk in at captain, as I do think he has the upside to be the slate’s top scorer.
Lastly, I’ll run a few lineups with prt captain. This will let me jam in studs in the rest of my lineup. I may even pair Rez with him, as I expect Rez should have next to 0 ownership with how expensive he is.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!