We’re back to a 5 game slate on Saturday, as no team has 2 games and therefore Draftkings didn’t cut any games off of the main slate. Lock is again at 8 am EST and the games are:
Mad Lions (50% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Heroic (60%) vs NiP
Contact (72%) vs Dignitas
Astralis (63%) vs Mouz
EG (82%) vs Triumph
Despite this being a pretty big slate, just like the other day it feels pretty straightforward in terms of what the “optimal” build is. That’s because the pricing on EG is pretty egregious again. Just like the last slate they were on, EG are not priced up further than rest of the favorites, they’re not even the most expensive favorite on the slate despite being by far the biggest favorite on the slate. Last time they played Triumph, 4/5 players scored over 70 and all 5 scored over 60. Somehow though, you can get Cerq for only $7.4k, Tarik for $6.6k, and Stan is all the way down at $5.6k. Even Ethan is only $8.6k. Only Brehze is even close to what he should be at $9.8k, but even there there are 3 players on this slate priced higher than him. I’m going to have at least a 2 stack of EG in every single one of my lineups, and probably mostly 3 stacks. EG will definitely be chalk but I’m gonna be eating as much as I can get my hands on.
Outside of EG there are a few other spots I like on this slate. Mad Lions just beat Fnatic the other day, and honestly should probably sweep them if simply ban inferno. Will they make that change, it’s hard to say. Mad Lions seem to be permabanning Dust 2, but Fnatic are also bad on Dust 2. If Mad Lions leave Dust 2 open and ban Inferno I think they win 2-0. acoR and Refrezh are playing great counterstrike right now, and 1 or 2 of Sjuush, Roej, and Hooxi seem to step up every map. acoR and Refrezh are two of my favorite plays on the slate, and I also like Sjuush a decent amount. I like won’t have too much of Roej or Hooxi.
On the Fnatic side, I don’t like anyone. Brollan’s role on the T side is just too hard to put up consistent fantasy points. He’s constantly sent charging in to bomb sites to try to force the enemy to reveal themselves and hopefully win a fight at a disadvantage. He’s a great player, so he wins those fights a decent amount, but it’s not exactly a recipe to frequently put up multikills and big fantasy scores. Krimz’ price has fully caught up to his production and while he’s not a bad play by any means, there are plenty of plays I like better on the slate. Flusha, JW, and Golden are all far too inconsistent for me to want to use on a 5 game slate, and the upside doesn’t outweigh the risk. Even when Fnatic wins they tend to win ugly and don’t put up huge Draftkings scores.
Speaking of winning ugly, Mouz are back on the main slate for the first time in a while. While they’re pretty unlikely to win as they’re up against Astralis, they’ll almost definitely drag Astralis down to the dirt with them. The one saving grace for Astralis may be that for as bad as they’ve been lately on Dust 2 (38% win percentage on 13 games in the past 3 months), Mouz have somehow been worse, with only a 27% win percentage on 11 maps played. Regardless of that, Astralis are still for the most part too expensive in this spot. Device and Dupreeh are priced prohibitively, and with Magisk still IGL’ing I’m not super interested in him either. As always Glaive has the least upside, and even at $7.2k I think there are better plays. I am once again interested in Xyp9x though. If you read this column for Friday’s slate you would’ve seen that Xyp was my favorite play on Astralis. It was looking great as he top fragged map 1. Then map 2 happened and Device went absolutely nuts while Xyp basically just watched. Now though, Xyp is all the way down at $6.2k. His numbers are still pretty bad, which is keeping his projections down, however I don’t expect him to go low owned here. I’ll still have a bunch though.
However, I’ve buried the lede as my favorite play from this game is on the other side. Ropz is somehow only $7k, despite being arguably the best player on the slate. Outside of possibly S1mple, his fantasy numbers are probably the least attached to his team’s performance. Win or lose Ropz puts up numbers. I expect him to do this again Saturday. I’ll be loading up on Ropz in this spot.
Heroic vs NiP should be a really strong game from an actual CounterStrike perspective. However, from a fantasy perspective I’m more likely to stay away than anything. The problem with both teams is they spread their scoring out too much. Heroic spreads it across their 4 players who aren’t Borup and NiP lately have been spreading it across all 5. I will say niko is underpriced at only $7k, and makes for an interesting pivot off of Ropz. Cadian has occasionally had blow up games, so if you’re making 20+ lineups it’s good to include him in a couple as that upside is always there. On the NiP side, if I had to play someone it would be Nawwk, but at $6.8k I’d rather just play Tarik at $6.6k. I don’t see myself using any NiP.
Contact vs Dignitas is the game that’s giving me the most trouble on this slate. Contact are technically the 2nd biggest favorites on the slate, but I genuinely don’t think this team is very good right now. On the other hand, Dignitas are definitely not good right now. I keep going back and forth but I think that the line should be closer than it is. I definitely think the Draftkings pricing is a little off. In my opinion Hallzerk and F0rest are the best individuals in this series, yet Hallzerk is only $5.6k and F0rest is only $6.0k. Meanwhile Rigon is $10k and the 3rd most expensive player on the slate. He should have pretty low ownership which makes him a tiny bit interesting, as he did look good in flashes against Fnatic. Otto is also a little expensive at $8.8k. Espiranto is probably priced about right at $7.8k. I’ll probably have a little bit of both sides here, but I’m much more likely to land on the Dignitas side.
Most of the plays I like today are on the cheap side, which is good because I’m going to need them to afford Brehze at captain. He’s again my favorite captain on the slate. He went crashing threw what I’d consider his floor against Rebirth last time out and still put up 60. Triumph are definitely a bit better but there’s still not a better floor/upside combo on this slate. I’ll have a bunch of Brehze floor. All 4 of his EG teammates are worth considering at captain as well. Ethan for his raw upside, Cerq for his raw upside and price, and Tarik and Stan for their prices. I’ll likely have an EG captain in over half of my lineups.
Outside of EG, Ropz is my favorite captain on the slate. Kind of like Cerq, he is both a raw ceiling play and a price play. If Mouz pull off the upset he has top score on the slate upset, and even if they lose he could put up 70+.
I’ll also have a bit of acoR and Refrezh. They both have monster upside and on a 5 game slate with a ton of options I don’t expect ownership to be off the charts.
Lastly, I’ll have a bit of Hallzerk and maybe even Forest. Hallzerk and Stan are the same price, and while Stan is definitely safer Hallzerk has higher upside so I’ll definitely go there a bit in GPP’s.
That’s it from me, good luck Saturday!