We continue Friday with 4 more games from IEM New York NA. We finally have some closer matchups, the games are:
Furia (51% implied win probability) vs EG
Triumph (95%) vs Imperium
New England Whalers (67%) vs Rebirth Esports
Liquid (74%) vs Chaos
We only have one game today that’s completely one-sided. Unfortunately, in that game, Triumph really aren’t priced up that much. Junior is at $9.6k, and I have to imagine Curry has never been higher than his $8.6k price tag, but Penny and Moose at $7.6k and $6.8k respectively are too cheap, and even Shakezullah at $6.0k is playable. This team is going to be absolute chalk on this slate, and in cash games/single entry/small field there is no reason to fade them. In larger GPP’s though, you can definitely get leverage by pivoting at least partly away from a Triumph stack. Both Elige and Hen1 should have much lower ownership than Junior for example. Of course, neither is as safe (Hen1 in particular), but if either outscores Junior in your lineup, you pass a huge chunk of the field. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m definitely not going to have a full fade here, and I certainly won’t be playing any Imperium, but I’ll likely come in under the field on Triumph players.
Outside of Triumph, this slate should be pretty wide open. Liquid are the 2nd biggest favorite on the slate, but their price points are all very similar to Triumph players. That plus how good Chaos have looked of late should keep their ownership down. Elige have been crushing of late, and while this is definitely a tougher matchup he’s my preferred pivot off of Junior. Grim is too expensive, I’ll once again be full fading him as his projections are still inflated. There’s only a couple more weeks that this should be case so our time of getting an edge fading Grim may be running out. NAF is underpriced here at $7.2k, and makes for a solid play as well.
As for Chaos themselves, I got burned by them yesterday as they demolished 100T, winning 16-7 and 16-9, and frankly neither map was even as close as scores looked. I don’t know how, but it seems like every time Chaos have to sub a player they just get better. They’re definitely live in this spot, and should be low owned. If you are playing Triumph, pairing them with Chaos is a good way to make a differentiated lineup. Note that it’s still going to be Wrath playing even though DK did add MarkE back to the player pool. I do think Wrath is slightly overprojected because of his stats coming mostly from the T2/3/4 scene, and we did see him bottom frag against 100T yesterday.
The New England Whalers vs Rebirth game is another interesting matchup. These teams have somehow never met despite both being a part of the T2/3 NA scene, but I do think this matchup is closer than the odds imply. So far in IEM, New England Whalers have dominated Imperius, and looked pretty good on their own map pick against EG. Rebirth also for the most part dominated Imperius, granted they did absolutely collapse on overpass after taking a 13-2 lead into halftime, but the other 2 maps were both 16-6 wins, and looked good on their own map pick against Furia. New England are likely to have decent ownership here, as outside of Djay they are pretty cheap. I don’t mind the PwnAlone play here, as he’s looked great on his AWP so far this tournament. What I really like though, is Rebirth in GPPs. 4pack is only $7k, and could put up a big score if they win. For whatever reason, Draftkings keep pricing Xotic unbelievably low, he’s the cheapest non-Imperius player on the slate. He could see some ownership here as he popped off in their win over Imperius, but I don’t think it will be a ton as they are underdogs here. retchy is in a similar boat at only $5.0k, and he should come in even lower owned than Xotic. I like both of them as plays here.
Last but certainly not least, we have the EG/Furia game. This should be a great game from a CS perspective, but will likely go overlooked from a DFS perspective. As a complete coinflip, it’s easier just to stay away and take more “sure things” from other games. Again in cash/single entry/small field contests, I agree. But in GPP’s, this game could be critical. If the winning team outscores Triumph and Liquid, lineups with them will have a massive advantage over most of the field. I’ll have plenty of both sides here, as Furia has won the last couple of contests but prior to that it was all EG. I will be focusing on the top players from both teams (Hen1, Yuurih, Kscerato from Furia and Brehze, Cerq, Ethan from EG) as the bottom fraggers are less likely to have a standout game against top competition. My inclination is to lean slightly more Furia heavy, as the dominated that last contest and EG has looked surprisingly beatable of late, but like I mentioned I’ll have plenty of each.
Triumph is likely to be relatively chalky at captain just like they will be in the flex. Junior, Curry, and Penny will all likely carry some ownership. Again, they are definitely good plays, but I prefer pivots off of them.
One of those pivots is Elige. He has been on point so far this tournament, and if Liquid beats Chaos that would mean he likely has another big day. It took a little while after incorporating Grim into the team, but Elige has reestablished himself as the top dog for Liquid. I also like NAF captain at his reduced salary.
On the Chaos side of that matchup, they’ve really started to spread the scoring around of late. While no longer relying so heavily on Xeppaa and Leaf is good for their actual results, it makes it tougher to predict their fantasy output. I’ll still have a bit of Xeppaa here, but I’ll mostly get my Chaos exposure in the flex.
From New England Whalers I like PwnAlone as a captain. He the upside to put up the highest score on the slate. Djay does as well, and should have pretty low ownership as his price is up at $8.8k (flex price). On the other side, 4pack also has top score on the slate upside, while an Xotic captain allows you to fit anyone else you want pretty much. I’m not sure you need the savings that badly on this slate, but it’s opens up some interesting builds.
From the Furia/EG game, I’ll have exposure to Hen1, Yuurih, and Kscerato from the Furia side, and Brehze and Cerq on the EG side. I don’t expect any of them to have crazy captain ownership, and all have the upside to put up the top score on the slate if their team wins.
Good luck on Friday!