IEM Fall 2021 continues Saturday, this time with a nice 4 game slate. We have all 8 remaining teams playing, some in the 5th-8th place deciders, and some in the actual semifinals. These games have implications for the upcoming major, so expect even the teams in the 5th-8th place deciders to be taking it very seriously. Lock is still at 11:00 am EDT, and the games are:
Vitality (60% implied probability) vs NiP
Copenhagen Flames (66%) vs Movistar Riders
Astralis (64%) vs Ence
G2 (70%) vs Fiend
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Glaive is still on paternity leave, don’t play him. Player pool is otherwise correct.
Before I jump into these games, I wanted to make a quick point about these tournaments being back on LAN. We’re getting to the point now that, specifically in the 1 month data, there are enough maps to start to notice trends of players who are playing better or worse. Experience really does matter, as the list of players whose 1 month stats, made up largely of LAN games for most teams, have improved the most compared to 3 months includes veterans like Device, literally all of G2, Rez, and Magisk. Meanwhile some of the “new kids on the block” have struggled, with Hades, Spinx, and Doto, all of Ence, topping the list for the biggest decrease in 1 month FP/r compared to 3 month. In my personal model (note, not the projections on the site, Wunsta is the brains behind those), I’ve upped the weight I put on 1 month stats to compensate for this.
Anyways, as for this slate, pricing looks pretty sharp, there really aren’t any massive value plays that stick out, and the studs are expensive. If you want to fit Zywoo and Niko, you’re going to have to make sacrifices in your lineup playing at least one or two bottom fraggers on a favorite, or run an underdog 3 stack around them. Assuming you aren’t stacking the underdog either of them is playing against – you shouldn’t on a 4 game slate – this leaves Ence and Movistar Riders as the underdog options to fit both Zywoo and Niko. Ence are fresh of an amazing series vs G2, earning themselves a ticket to the major, a career first for everyone besides Snappi. At this point there should be no pressure on them, I’d expect them to come out with their trademark aggressive play. While Astralis is unlikely to be caught off-guard, Ence’s raw firepower could be enough to put them over the top. I like Ence a good deal in GPPs. Especially because I expect a lot of people to play the cheap Astralis players. Astralis are by far the most balanced scoring team of the favorites, which makes their bottom fraggers attractive plays.
As for Movistar Riders, I like them too. Alex is one of the only players on the slate who is mispriced, he should be the guy at $6.6k, not Mopoz. The extra $800 we save on him really comes in handy on this slate. Sunpayus is the natural stacking partner, although the step up in competition has definitely held him in check. He’s just putting up solid numbers now, not the insane numbers we saw him put up in the T4 scene. If you want to 3 stack, Mopoz or deathzz are both solid options, deathzz is really cheap.
I do also like NiP in GPPs. Even though they have a 40% win probability, they’ll be rostered lower than they should because of the Zywoo effect (the term I’ve coined for how Zywoo sucks up all the rostership in a game, leaving his opponents underutilized every slate he’s on). Like I mentioned above, Device once again has elite numbers recently, his FP/r in the past month only trail Niko and Zywoo on the slate. He’s very affordable at $8.0k, and you can stack the rest of his teammates with him without breaking the bank.
Copenhagen Flames should be the overlooked favorite on the slate. And it’s easy to see why. Who wants to play Roej for basically the same price as Zywoo and Niko? Yuck…However, the FP/r are there, he’s 5th on the slate in FP/r over the past month, with a borderline elite .73 FP/r number. He’s an excellent GPP pivot.
To quickly touch on G2 vs Fiend, I’m not convinced G2 have fixed the problems that have been plaguing them. Ence are good, but with the names on G2’s roster they simply shouldn’t be losing a 3 map series to that team. I think Fiend is very live in this spot, and will mix in some H4rm, Redstar, and Dream3r into my lineup pool.
Long story short, I like the underdogs and Copenhagen Flames on this slate. You don’t have to go too crazy and play lineups with only underdogs/CPFL, but I’m going to try to incorporate at least one underdog player/stack or CPFL (and an underdog + CPFL is also fine since CPFL are expensive) in most of my lineups.
If you can afford Zywoo or Niko captain, then by all means, play them. But I expect to mostly need to go to the mid-range for my captain slot on this slate. My favorite plays in that range are:
I don’t think you need to go all the way to a punt cpt, and the super cheap guys truly are punts on this slate, but if you really need the salary you could do worse Doto, Deathzz, or Dream3r captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!