IEM New York (NA) continues on Thursday. We have another 4 game slate consisting of:
EG (91% implied win probability) vs New England Whalers
Liquid (99%) vs Mythic
100 Thieves (64%) vs Chaos
TeamOne (85%) vs RBG Esports
Pricing is again fairly tight on this slate once you take away the massive underdogs.
We finally have an underdog who is somewhat live based on the Vegas odds, with Chaos being given a ~36% chance to win against 100T. Draftkings has priced accordingly though, and you don’t get a massive cost savings stepping down from 100T to Chaos. This should keep Chaos ownership relatively in check, although I do expect them to be by far the most popular underdog. Wrath stepped into MarkE’s spot seamlessly, as he was actually Chaos’ best player fantasy wise in their opening match against Mythic. However, I do worry about the stand-in against a team like 100T. 100T themselves have looked really strong of late, with Gratisfaction in particular stepping up his play. The stand-in for Chaos plus 100T’s form are going to have me squarely on the 100T side of this matchup. If I had 100 lineups I may run Chaos in a few, but if only running 20 or so, I’d full fade them. I’ll again have a bunch of AZR and Liazz as cost saving pieces, and the studs are fairly cheap as well so I’ll likely mix some of them in.
The other underdog that might get a bit of play is RBG. They’re basically free across the board and I imagine people will see two teams that they don’t know very well and assume the underdog has a fighting chance. Personally I won’t be doing that. I’m a big believer in the talent of TeamOne, and they’ve shown their a clear cut above the rest of the T3/4 scene in NA. Since relocating their players from Brazil to North America, TeamOne has been dominant in the MDL, going 10-0 (11-0 if you count the Swole Patrol forfeit), and only allowing teams to reach 10+ rounds twice. That includes a 16-7 win over this RBG team. I will be strictly on the TeamOne side here. I actually love the spot for them, as I expect them to come in significantly lower owned than Liquid and EG, who are both in spots they should crush. TeamOne can score just as well as either of those teams, and I’ll be loaded up at what should hopefully be much lower ownership.
As I just mentioned, both Liquid and EG are set up to crush. I have absolutely 0 interest in playing anyone from Mythic, and also won’t have anyone from New England Whalers in this tough matchup. Everyone from both Liquid and EG are in play, although as always I’ll be fading Grim. As the 2nd cheapest player on the team at only $8.2k, I expect him to have the highest ownership within Liquid (and possibly on the slate). His projections are still somewhat inflated, and I’ll take my chances on his teammates being the better plays.
As I mentioned above, I think TeamOne will go underowned on this slate. That should hold true at captain, and I’ll look to have plenty of exposure here. prt and B4rtin are my favorite plays, but I’ll have all 5 players in my captain pool.
Since I’m not playing any underdogs, it’s really hard to fit any of the studs at captain from Liquid or EG. For example there are 10 total teams you can make with Elige captain playing only favorites. Swap Chaos in for 100T and that number opens up to 55 teams. This is part of the reason I think people will be driven to Chaos and/or Grim. I’m comfortable playing the value guys here at captain. That will mean mostly Stewie from Liquid and Tarik from EG (you can play Stan but I’d much prefer Tarik).
Gratisfaction is my favorite captain on 100T, although I’ll also have jks and jkaem in my pool. I’d rather use the cheap players from Liquid/EG/T1 than Azr or Liazz on this slate, but if you really need the extra cost savings you could do worse.
Good luck today!