The playoffs of IEM Fall 2021 continue on Friday, with the other 2 quarterfinal matchups. Lock is at 11:00 am EDT again, and the games are:
Astralis (71% implied win probability) vs Fiend
G2 (56%) vs Ence
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Glaive is still on paternity leave, don’t play him. Player pool is otherwise correct.
This slate is interesting because even though G2 are only small favorites, I expect them to have very high ownership. Specifically, Niko and to a slightly lesser extent Hunter. In my personal model (note, this is not what’s on the site, Wunsta does a great job with our official projections), I have Niko’s expected points 22 above 2nd place on the slate…and 2nd place is Hunter (whom I have ~2.75 above Magisk in 3rd). That’s an absolutely absurd gap, and I’d be shocked if Niko isn’t the highest rostered play on the slate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hunter as the number 2 rostered player either although I could see that going to either Magisk or Dupreeh.
I think this gives us really good leverage on Ence, as very few people will be 3 stacking them on this slate. Hell, I don’t even hate an Ence 3 stack + Niko. Dycha has been playing really well lately, and Spinx and Hades are solid stacking partners for him. Doto is also an interesting option if you need price savings or just if you want to leave some salary on the board to get different. If you think Vegas is right and Ence have a ~45% chance to win the series, 3 stacking them in this a solid move. You can of course run Niko one-off, but recognize that if you do that and use the full salary (or close to it) you probably won’t be unique.
In the other game, Astralis on LAN are still a force to be reckoned with, and I’d expect Fiend to struggle to keep up. Magisk, Dupreeh, and Lucky should be the most popular 3, so Xyp and Bubzkji are decent GPP plays. I also think more people will run an Astralis 3 stack, Faze 2 stack and Ence one-off than the other way around, so a 3 stack of G2/Ence and then 2-1 of Astralis and Fiend. H4rn is probably the safest one-off as the AWPer, but Redstar and Dream3r are also fine.
If you’re MME’ing, you should devote at least a few lineups to Fiend stacks, either 2 or 3 stacks, because according to Vegas there’s a nearly 30% chance they win in this spot. In cash/SE, I’m not sure you need to go to a Fiend stack.
As I already mentioned, Niko is head and shoulders above the field in terms of expected points, and likely also in captain rostership. If he’s on it’s hard to see many guys on the slate outscoring him. Hunter can, and maybe Dupreeh and Magisk.
The easiest way to leverage off Niko cpt though, is to play Ence captain. Dycha and Spinx are my favorites, as they tend to be the more explosive players on the team that can put up huge numbers. In Ence lineups Dupreeh and Magisk do become better captain choices since Ence doesn’t have anyone at Niko’s level of FP/r (which by the way is over 1.0 FP/r in the past month, anything over .7 is borderline elite).
I don’t really think you need to go down to a punt captain on this slate, but Lucky does have a little upside to score the highest on the slate, he’s not the worst option.
If you stack Fiend, all 3 of Redstar, H4rn, and Dreamer can put up big games, and all are fine captains.
Good luck on Friday!