We have another 4 game slate Wednesday from IEM New York (NA). The games are:
Chaos (92% implied win probability) vs Mythic
Liquid (87%) vs TeamOne
Furia (90%) vs Triumph
Rebirth (78%) vs Imperium
After yesterday’s debacle of New England Whalers bringing back Boobie over a month after he quit the team so they don’t get penalized RMR points (since they apparently think they have a chance to qualify for the major????) I’m doing my best to be extra diligent as to who is actually playing for these teams. Today, it’s confirmed via twitter (Chaos’ official account retweeting his tweet), that Wrath is playing for Chaos in MarkE’s spot, as MarkE qualified to this event as part of Ze Pug Godz. Rebirth and Imperium both played yesterday, and should have the same rosters playing today. TeamOne’s roster hasn’t changed since the last time we saw them, and if you are playing Mythic…why?
Again we have a super lopsided slate in terms of the odds. The “closest” matchup is Rebirth vs Imperium and they are still have 78% implied odds. I’m not planning on using anyone from Mythic or Triumph, and while TeamOne are a bit more tempting, I’m unlikely to go there either as you don’t need it quite as much on this slate, as there’s a couple pricing oddities that we’ll get to in a minute. I didn’t want to use Imperium yesterday against the New England Whalers, and while the Whalers are probably a bit better than Rebirth, I’m still not likely to use much if any Imperium here. In addition to the 2-0 loss to NEW, they lost in MDL to “Russian Canadians” and “Ex-Polar Ace” last night (both Bo1’s). Basically, I’ll be on all favorites again.
Pricing is again pretty tight on Furia, Liquid, and Chaos except for Wrath. For some reason, Wrath is priced all the way down at $4.8k. While it’s probably safe to downgrade his projection slightly, as his role within Chaos is unlikely to be the same as with his actual team (Secret Club), he has been playing competition at Mythic’s level and performing quite well. In fact, his last match is quite literally against Mythic, where he went +3 K-D in a 16-11 loss (Bo1). He should be closer to 7k here, and is in my opinion a free square. I’ll have him in every single lineup today either at flex or captain. I doubt he’ll be low owned, but he likely won’t have quite as much ownership as he should.
The pricing on Rebirth is also baffling. 4pack has been clearly their best player, he’s $9.4k, makes sense. But the other 4 have all performed roughly the same of late. Somehow though, nosraC (Carson) is the most expensive player on the slate, while Phantom, XotiC, and retchy are all in the bottom 4 in terms of price. Umm, what? All 3 of them should have plenty of ownership but they are all solid plays and I’ll have at least one of them in nearly all of my lineups. I do think 4pack may go a bit overlooked here, and like him in GPPs as well.
For Furia, I again like arT and Vini, not just from a cost savings but as was saw yesterday with arT, their super aggressive style can lead to ceiling games against these lesser teams. Now, Triumph are a much better team than Rebirth, but they aren’t good and arT will likely be able to run them over a decent amount.
On Liquid, Grim is finally seeing his 3 month stats significantly drop, but he’s still a bit overprojected. I’ll be full fading him here, as I expect him to still carry ownership higher than the likelihood that he reaches his upside.
There’s two viable build paths that I see today. One is going high price captain and making it work via the extreme value from Wrath + the 3 Rebirth players. The other is Wrath/Rebirth cpt (XotiC > Phantom > retchy is my preference from Rebirth, I like Wrath better than all 3 and it’s not particularly close though) and then playing a bunch of studs around them. I’ll have an even mix of the two setups.
For studs, I like (in no particular order):
I slightly prefer the Wrath (or Rebirth) + studs build, so if I was only making 1 or a few lineups I would lean that way.
One last note is that mid-range captains will likely go overlooked with all the value. Players like Twistzz (or arT, although his ownership will likely spike after Tuesday’s performance) will likely come in underowned with all the value opening up salary for the “studs”. Both Twistzz and arT have shown they have top score on the slate upside, and your lineup with one of them at captain will likely be a unique build type simply because of the salary.
That’s it from me, good luck on Wednesday!