This afternoon we have a 4 game NA Slate to kick off IEM New York. There are some uh, interesting, teams in this tournament, and some massive mismatches on this slate. The games are:
EG (90% implied win probability) vs Triumph
New England Whalers (89%) vs Imperium
100T (99%) vs RBG Esports
Furia (99%) vs Rebirth Esports
One note before we dive in Boobie is NOT playing for the New England Whalers, bwills is and has been playing for them for the last month or so. The odds already account for this, so it’s of not impact to the game at all aside from making sure we have the right player in our DFS lineups.
Anyways, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a slate this lopsided. New England Whalers are the smallest favorite…with an 89% win probability. With them also being a relatively unknown team it may be tempting to play there opponent. However these are Imperium’s last few matches:
16-5 loss to “Depth”
16-3 loss to “Rugratz”
16-4 loss to TeamOne
Not a murderers row of opponents and they’ve put up 12 total rounds on 3 maps. I’ll be staying away. The same goes for the rest of the underdogs. Triumph are far and away the best team of the group, but they’re facing EG. I want no part of them nor do I want any of RBG or Rebirth.
With just the 4 favorites as our player pool, that begs the questions: how can we differentiate our lineups?
One way is by playing New England Whalers players. Hand builders are not going to want to play these guys, as it’s much more comfortable to click on the names of the known quantities around them on the price list. None of them have insane recent stats so they don’t project all that well, meaning people who build with optimizers likely won’t get a ton (of the studs, Ben1337 and Rampage are cheap enough that they’ll likely garner some ownership, Bwills is also super cheap but I’m not sure everyone feel confident he’s playing because Boobie is listed on HLTV, which is incorrect). Long story short, NEW will likely go underowned here. I’ll have a bunch of Pwnalone, Bwills, and some Djay as well. Pwnalone has really solid 6 month stats and good 1 month stats, somehow his 3 month stats are a little lacking, he must’ve had a rough month 2 or 3 months ago. Most places I’m aware of place a heavy emphasis on 3 month stats in their projections, and thus his projections aren’t great. I love him as a GPP play on this slate. I prefer Bwills over Djay as my secondary play mostly because of price. Bwills has flashed crazy upside since joining NEW, having individual maps where he went +13 and +18. I may very well lock him into every single one of my lineups today as he’s only $6.0k. Djay is expensive and while he projects slightly better than Pwnalone right now, this is again because of Pwnalone’s weirdly bad 3 month stats. I’ll have a bit of Djay but I much prefer Pwnalone as my stud from this team.
I spent so long on NEW because by now the other favorites are pretty standard. With the pricing being so tight we are going to need to play some bottom fraggers. For the “bottom fraggers” for each team I prefer Vini > Azr >> Stanislaw, and for the 2nd bottom fraggers I prefer arT > Liazz > Tarik. Of course that’s also the order the pricing is in, so if you need the extra couple hundred dollars don’t worry about dipping down to Stan or Tarik. For the high end guys, my plan is to mix and match, everyone is priced up and any of them could pop off.
With how tight pricing is and my complete disinterest in playing any of the underdogs, I’m almost forced to pay down at captain today. I don’t love doing this typically, but this slate more than any I can remember the point per dollar matters. With that in mind, my favorite captain on the slate is none other than Bwills. He projects almost exactly the same as Pwnalone and Djay (again, I do think Pwnalone is a bit better than his projection and still NEW’s best player), yet costs $6.0k compared to their respective $8.8k and $9.4k.
I doubt I will pay up much at captain, but my favorite high end plays are Pwnalone, Brehze, and jks.
In addition to Bwills, I’ll have a decent amount of Vini, arT, and Azr at captain, as their cost savings allow you to jam in some studs. I’ll also have a bit of Ethan and maybe jkaem at their sort of in between salaries in the mid 8 thousands.
That will be my core captains on this slate, but my pool will realistically be everyone of the favorites except for Stanislaw and Ben1337.
Good luck today!