We’ve got the same 4 teams again on Wednesday, as the 9th-12th deciders continue. Lock is at 11:00 am EDT again and the games are:
Heroic (62% implied win probability) vs OG
Faze (66%) vs Big
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool is correct.
Heroic have looked truly bad on LAN, culminating with getting smacked by BIG on Tuesday. I can’t imagine they will suddenly fix whatever issues they’re having overnight, so I’m surprised to see them as fairly good sized favorites over OG. OG themselves didn’t look great against Faze, but this game is basically a coinflip in my opinion. Of course, this means OG are a solid play in GPP’s, as Heroic, and Refrezh in particular, are once again underpriced for their odds.
If you 3 stack OG, Flamez and Mantuu have been the clear top 2 lately, but the 3rd is where you can get different. Valde is technically the 3rd best player, but he’s fallen off a lot lately, and Aleksib and niko make for good pivots off him, especially in lineups where you could fit Valde if you wanted. Leaving that money on the table is a good way to differentiate.
I nailed my call to play one of Olof or Karrigan on Tuesaday, as Olof ended up the 2nd best fragger, unfortunately it was Broky that you needed to fade and not Twistzz. The same thing is going to be true of Faze on Wednesday, Broky/Twistzz/Rain lineups will likely be popular (with a big drop in rostership from Broky/Rain to Twistzz). Fading either Broky or Twistzz and playing either Olof or Karrigan is a good way to differntiate in GPPs.
Big is again a decent leverage play. It’s worth noting for them that Gade stepped up in a big way on Tuesday, seemingly at K1to’s expense. I have no stats or internal knowledge so I’m just speculating here, but maybe they used the off day to make a couple of strategic changes? Going Tabsen/Syrson/Gade instead of Tabsen/Syrson/K1to is an interesting option for this slate.
Flamez has been playing really well for OG, he looks like (and the stats back up) their best player. He’s a solid captain and should have overwhelming rostership with OG being underdogs. Mantuu is a solid pivot as he can have huge games on his AWP when he’s on. He’s just been off more than he’s been on lately, unfortunately for OG.
On the Faze side, I don’t expect Broky’s off day Tuesday to impact how many people captain him Wednesday, but I hope it does. It won’t deter me, as he’s my favorite captain from this game. If you want to play the big side, Tabsen and Syrson are your best options. They probably won’t be used a ton but keep in mind almost all the lineups with them at captain will likely look similar. You’ll still need to do something to get different even if they’re only 4% rostered at captain each.
Good luck on Wednesday!