IEM starts back up on Tuesday, with the start of the 9th-12th place deciders, which are back to Bo3. These matches are important for qualifying to the Major, so except all teams to be giving their all despite it just being to see who gets 9th-12th. Lock is at 11:00 am EDT and the games are:
Heroic (65% implied win probability) vs Big
OG (51%) vs Faze
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool is correct.
Someone at DK must really love refrezh because they do their best to price him so that he’s in every single lineup, every single day. He’s way too cheap at $6.6k, he has the highest FP/r over the past month on the whole slate and is on the only actual favorite on the slate. Sjuush and Cadian will also likely join him as chalk, all of Heroic really. The easiest way to play Heroic and be different is to play them without Refrezh, and/or play both Teses and Stavn.
Of course, Big will also be a low owned pivot. It just feels bad to play them right now they just…aren’t good. I know Heroic have struggled a bit on LAN, but Big have struggled no matter what server type they’re on. Xantares has left a hole that Gade and the 4 who remain on Big just haven’t been able to fill. Maybe they’ll figure it out eventually, but for now I’d rather take my chances player the lower owned Heroic guys than go to Big.
The other game is basically a coinflip, but OG technically being the favorites will likely swing ownership their way. If you want to stack OG, AleksiB is usually underowned, and niko likely will be too as Refrezh and Sjuush are cheap enough that you can play the top guys from either side of this game.
On the Faze side, Broky/Twistzz/Rain are head an shoulder above Olof and Karrigan in FP/r. That said, it’s a 2 game slate so if you’re trying to win it solo or with minimal splitting, it’s worth hoping that one of Olof or Karrigan turn back the clock to get different. I think Twistzz will have significantly more ownership than Rain even though his stats are barely better, so the stack I like best is Broky + Rain + Olof/Karrigan.
Refrezh saves a bunch of money and has just as much upside as anyone on the slate, expect him to be popular. In cash, I don’t think you should go anywhere else, but in tournaments I’ll be looking to get different. Paying all the way up for Teses should be something not many people do, I like that move a lot.
From the other game; Mantuu, Flamez, and Broky will all likely have some rostership, but less than Refrezh. Each of them are fine but recognize you’ll have to do more than just captain one of them to get different in GPPs. The easiest way to do that is leave money on the table. Play rain when you can afford Twistzz or AleksiB when you can afford Valde.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!