With Tier 1 off on Monday, we have a 3 game (it was 4 but one game got moved on the schedule and is therefore off the slate, make sure not to play anyone from Nemiga or AaB) of T3 or worse CSGO that locks at 9:00 am EDT. The games are:
1win (86% implied win probability) vs Tricked
777 (67%) vs Onyx
Eternal Fire (82%) vs KOVA
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Basso hasn’t played in any of Trick’s 13 maps this month. He is listed on the HLTV match page, but I personally don’t think it’s worth the risk to play him since Tricked are such big underdogs.
As always on lower tier slates I want to mention a couple things.
- Underdogs are almost always even more under-rostered than they are on T1 slates because no one knows who anyone is and they don’t like clicking names that they not only don’t know who they are but they’re underdogs.
- Focus on lineup construction. For 3 gamers that means 3-2-1 or even some 3-3. You don’t usually have to be completely perfect so running 3 stack(s) is fine.
With this slate down to a 3-gamer it definitely takes away a bit of the luster considering 2 of the games are massive lines. I expect Eternal Fire will be extra-chalky as hand builders will flock to them. Don’t overlook deko though. He has insane stats, including the highest FP/r over the past 3 months on the slate.
I do think that the 15% chance to win underdogs are slightly more live on this slate than they would be on other slates because there’s a lot of unknown/inconsistency in lower tier play, but I wouldn’t go overboard on either of them. The one dog I’ll have a decent chunk of is Onyx vs 777. Onyx has the talent to compete with 777 and could easily come out on top of this series.
Pricing is surprisingly sharp on this slate given how obscure these teams are, so there aren’t any value captain plays that stick out. Of the studs, I like deko > xantares > h4rr3 in terms of raw points, but it’s close enough that all of them are worth a look in GPP’s.
With pricing being tight you almost have to play some cheap captain unless you’re going to go underdogs in every lineup, but again no one really sticks out. One guy I’m looking at is imorr. He entries a ton, and entry fraggers usually play their best (for DFS) against inferior competition. He’s cheap enough that it helps you to fit some more of the top fraggers.