Group B finishes up on Saturday, which unfortunately means only a showdown slate for us as the winner of the 1st game plays the team waiting for them in the 2nd game. The game we get for Showdown is:
Complexity (54% implied win probability) vs Big
Pricing is all over the place on Saturday. First of all DK put oBo as an option for Col, while marking him out (???) and left Rush off the slate, at least initially. Umm…..what? I imagine they’ll at least add Rush eventually (I’m writing this as of 6 pm EST Friday), and I hope they do it soon so we can get an advantage over the small percentage of the field who decides to play him. Once you get past the player pool, Big is more expensive than Col despite being the underdog.
I expect Col 3 stacks to be much higher owned than Big 3 stacks, and likely the most popular lineup construction. So, how can we be unique within a Col stack? Really the only way I can think of is fading BlameF. I expect him to be super high owned in captain, and 80+ % owned overall. Using him in the flex with a Col stack should be slightly unique, as I imagine a lot of his flex ownership will come in 2/2’s or Big stacks. Full fading him and rolling with jks, Poizon, and K0nfig is likely the most unique way to get a Col stack, short of playing Rush. Once they do add rush, I still won’t have any of him. He’s a virtual lock to be one of their bottom 2 fraggers, and pricing isn’t tight enough where he could get you there via points per dollar. If you’re running a Col stack, you’ll almost definitely need their top 3 scorers in terms of raw points. You can also leave money on the table when you run it back with your Big player. We finally saw Tabsen put up a decent game on Friday (although a lot of his kills on overpass were anti-eco), so running him when you have the salary for Xan or Syrson should be fairly unique.
Big 3 stacks are also perfectly viable. They won’t be “low” owned by any means, nothing ever is in a showdown, but they should be lowered owned than Col 3 stacks. All 5 Big players are in play here, but I’m mostly going to stick to Xantares + Syrson and rotate the 3rd player. It will definitely be unique to fade either one of them in a Big 3 stack, but it also feels a bit thin to me. What I will do, is play one of them in the flex and rotate the 3rd Big player in at captain. That should have decently low ownership. I’ll also again differentiate by leaving salary on the table with my Col player. Even if I can afford BlameF, some of the time I’ll run back any of the other Col options besides Rush.
This section will be very short, as everyone (besides Rush, who I’m not using at all), is in play at both flex and captain, since captains are half your lineup. What I will say, is make sure you mix it up at captain, and don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table. Just because you have the salary to play jks at captain doesn’t mean you have to play him their over K0nfig.
That’s it from me, good luck on Saturday!