We are at the start of the “Legends” stage of PGL Stockholm, what many still consider the real start of the major (what’s now known as the “Challengers” stage used to be called the qualifier and wasn’t technically part of the major). It’s all the top teams in the world right now, and also EG (couldn’t help myself). Should be an exciting tournament. We are back to best of 1’s for this slate, as the same Swiss format is used here as was used for the Challengers stage. Draftkings has cut off a bunch of early games again, leaving us with a 4 game slate that locks at 7:00 am EDT. The games are:

Vitality (61% implied win probability) vs VP

Navi (63%) vs Heroic

NiP (62%) vs Mouz

Astralis (58%) vs Furia

Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues

Player pool appears correct.

Slate Analysis

The superstars are finally back on the slate. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Zywoo on a DK slate, and even longer since we’ve had S1mple on one. They should be priced at least several hundred if not over $1k more than everyone else, but they aren’t. What that means is they’re going to have a ton of rostership, and the studs from the other two favorites shouldn’t have much. Dev1ce is still a stud in his own right, so he might have a bit of rostership, but the Astralis studs, Dupreeh and Magisk, should be virtually untouched. Of course, it’s pretty unlikely that they’re the top scorers out of the studs, but that small percentage of the time that they are they’ll put you in a great spot to win a GPP if you have them. Meanwhile if you have Zywoo or S1mple you’ll still have to have a perfect lineup around them to beat the 60% of the field that also has them.

Outside of Astralis studs, I do think a couple lines are a little off. I think Navi should be bigger favorites against Heroic than they are and Mouz shouldn’t be as big of underdogs as they are against NiP. I’m not sure the Navi piece is actionable since S1mple will be driving rostership to them anyways, maybe play the secondary and tertiary pieces a bit more. Mouz though are my favorite GPP play to help fit the studs. Ropz and Frozen are obvious, but don’t overlook Bymas in a 3-stack.

Top Captains

As always, the conversation starts with Zywoo and S1mple at captain. They’re the clear top players on the slate, and fine captain options. Of course, much like I mentioned above, they’ll have a ton of rostership. I again like pivoting to Magisk and Dupreeh in GPPs.

If you want to go cheap, Frozen is sitting below $7k, I like him a lot at captain. Other than him I’ll be mostly sticking with the studs as there’s enough value with Mouz and other underdogs that you can afford to look for raw points at captain.

Good luck on Saturday!

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