Group B continues Friday with 2 more games, the winners from Thursday face off as do the losers. The games are:
Vitality (57% implied win probability) vs Big
Complexity (70%) vs Faze
This is another tough slate. We saw Thursday with Vitality that their subbing appears to be map based vs performance based. Misutaaa had one of his better maps on Nuke, only to be immediately subbed out for Nivera on Dust 2. Nivera then top fragged on Dust 2, only to be subbed right back out on Vertigo. Since those are the only 3 maps Vitality have played so far with Nivera eligible to play, it’s impossible to know what the lineup will look like on the other maps. The map picks should be in before lock today, and if we see Dust 2 we know that Misutaaa is likely to be subbed out. If we see nuke or vertigo it’s likely Nivera will be on the sidelines. I still think RpK is the most likely player other than Misutaaa to sit out a map, but that’s still speculation. I do expect Vitality to win this series, as we saw Big struggle a Niko-less Faze on Thursday. I’ll obviously be playing Zywoo, but I’ll also have plenty of Shox as well. As IGL Apex is unlikely to sit, but he’s also not a great fragger. I actually prefer running it back with Xantares instead of a 3rd from Vitality. That said I’ll definitely have some Vitality 3 stacks using either Apex or RpK as my 3rd. If you think Big wins or the series goes 3 maps, a 2-1 with Syrson, Xantares, and Zywoo makes a lot of sense. The rest of Big is super inconsistent, but make for decent GPP plays should you want to 3 stack them and fade Zywoo. It’s unlikely the 3rd member of Big outscores him, but if they do you pass a huge portion of the field.
In the Col vs Faze matchup, DK somehow forgot Olof was playing and he’s not included on the slate. I don’t know what they were thinking, as they were able to add him for Thursday’s slate, but then apparently thought that was only for one day despite news of the Niko to G2 move being plastered all over the internet…I really don’t want to play Faze on this slate, but with Col’s pricing I might have to. To fit a 3 stack of Col, you almost have to play Rush. Sure he had a big game Thursday, but his role hasn’t changed on this Col team, and highly unlikely he remains the 2nd best fragger going forward like he was Thursday. I’m going to try my best to fade him, which means I basically have to play at least someone from Faze (or 4 stack the other game). You could run a 2-1 with Col and Broky, Coldzera, or maybe even Rain as he’s looked decent of late. You could even 2 stack them if you think they push it to 3 maps. I really don’t see how they actually win this matchup, so I’m likely not to 3 stack, but it’s not out of the question. From Col, my priority is BlameF. Everyone else will be up and down on this team, but he consistently frags, and everyone else is priced up almost as high as him. Behind him, I think K0nfig should be lowest owned, so I like him the best. Him, Poizon, and jks are all solid plays, and it’s difficult to say which one will perform the best on any given day. Both Poizon and K0nfig have been wildly inconsistent, and jks is new to the team and was also fairly inconsistent even as the clear top player on 100T. Any of them can go off any given day and any of them can struggle.
Zywoo is likely to come in with high captain ownership, but with BlameF as another viable option at a similar price point it may be slightly depressed from what it otherwise would be. Zywoo still outprojects him, but it’s not by a massive margin, and BlameF is in the easier matchup. I like both of them quite a bit as captains if you can fit them.
I initially thought I would like the idea of dropping down to Shox at captain quite a bit, but unfortunately it doesn’t really open up as much as I thought it would. You still have to run Rush if you want to 3 stack Col (and run 3 from the Vitality game). Even running Xantares cpt + Syrson + Zywoo forces you to either run Rush or Faze.
As I alluded to above, Poizon, jks and K0nfig can all put up the top score on the slate if they have an “on” day, so I’m open to running them at captain as well. They also don’t offer enough savings to avoid playing Rush or a bottom fragger from Big/high sub risk player from Vitality/no Zywoo.
Running a Faze captain with a 2 stack of Col is something I’m considering in big GPP’s. If you run for example, Coldzera at cpt, you can fit essentially whoever else you want. Running a 1-2 with your captain definitely feels bad, but he’s so cheap he could pay off that salary even in a loss. The question really comes down to: who do I think scores more, Coldzera in a loss or Rush in a win? Prior to Thursday I would’ve likely said Coldzera, and I’m hopeful that enough of the field changes their mind and goes with Rush Friday after overreacting to his showing Thursday. I do expect him to garner some captain ownership, but I’ll be staying away.
That’s it for me, good luck Friday!