As the Challengers stage wraps up, we have one more slate from it. There are 3 games but DK cut off the first one, leaving us with a 2 gamer. Lock is at 6:15 am EDT and the games are:
Mouz (53% implied win probability) vs Big
Astralis (57%) vs Spirit
Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues
Player pool appears correct.
Pricing is looooose on this slate. Frozen is the only player at $9k or higher, and ropz, degster, and mir are all under $8k. I’d expect Ropz rostership to be thru the roof. It’s definitely deserved, but fading him in GPP’s is a solid move.
In general on slates like this where pricing is loose, 4th (and 5th if applicable) fraggers who are right behind the 3rd place guy go under-rostered. Here’s what I’m talking about. These are the 3 month FP/r for the bottom 3 Astralis fraggers (Dupreeh and Magisk are far ahead of the bottom 3):
Lucky: 0.43 FP/r
gla1ve: 0.42 FP/r
Xyp9x: 0.42 FP/r
Gla1ve has the best one month numbers (which are just this tournament since he was on paternity leave before) of the group, and is cheapest, so I’d expect him to be most popular. That leaves Lucky and Xyp9x potentially underutilized, and solid GPP plays.
Moving to BIG (going in alphabetical order because that’s how I have my model sorted), let’s take a look at their bottom 3. Again Tabsen and Syrson are a good bit ahead in the top 2 spots. 3 month FP/r is:
k1to: 0.41 FP/r
gade: 0.41 FP/r
tizian: 0.35 FP/r
K1to is a bit further ahead in 1 month FP/r, so I’d expect him to be highest rostered of the group. While I do generally like him as a play because when he does well big does, since this is only a 2 game slate I want to get different. Gade should see a bit less rostership than K1to while Tizian will likely be lowest or 2nd lowest on the slate. Both guys are again solid GPP plays.
Moving on to Mouz. Mouz are the one team on the slate where the big gap is between players 3 and 4. Frozen and Ropz are at the top, then the bottom 3 is:
Bymas: 0.61 FP/r
acor: .46 FP/r
Dexter: .43 FP/r
That’s a pretty sizeable gap. I’m also not sure the field in general appreciates how big that gap is, as in the past it’s typically been Frozen + Ropz + whoever else you can fit when stacking Mouz. For that reason I’m less likely to drop down from Bymas to acor or Dexter than I am on other teams, although I’ll definitely do it in a few lineups (I may even drop Frozen or Ropz instead of Bymas).
Lastly, let’s look at Spirit. Interestingly, they’re the only team with a distant 5th fragger in Chopper. There’s a decent gap between Degster + Mir and Sdy in 3rd, but Sdy and Magixx are close. Here’s the bottom 3 FP/r from Spirit:
Sdy: 0.57 FP/r
Magixx: 0.52 FP/r
Chopper: 0.32 FP/r
Sure you can go to Chopper if you’re max entering, but the play I like here is Magixx over Sdy. This is anecdotal just from watching so maybe not the most accurate thing I’ve ever said, but I feel like Sdy is a player who farms lesser competition and struggles against the big boys. Again, that’s definitely my own personal bias, but it makes me like Magixx over Sdy.
With pricing loose we’re looking for raw points. This means just top fraggers for me. The teams top fraggers FP/r go like this: Mouz > Spirit > Astralis = Big
Since Mouz is a favorite while Spirit aren’t, I’d expect their captains to be the most popular. I’ll likely come in under the field on Frozen and Ropz, but over on Bymas. Bymas’ 0.61 FP/r are actually 5th on the slate, only trailing Degster and Mir outside of his own team.
Astralis will likely get a bit of rostership on Magisk and Dupreeh since they’re technically the bigger favorites, but I think the lower FP/r numbers will keep rostership at a reasonable level to the point where I still like them in GPP’s.
Degster and Mir are fine plays, but will likely be a bit overutilized given their odds. Tabsen and Syrson should be the lowest used of the group, making them both excellent GPP plays.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!