Group B of the Blast Premier Fall Series starts Thursday, so we finally get some new teams. Slate locks at 11:30 am EST and the games are:
Vitality (58% implied win probability) vs Complexity
Big (67%) vs Faze
jks makes his Complexity debut on Thursday, which should immediately elevate them back to being the title contending team they looked like with oBo. Unfortunately, that’s about where the fun on this slate stops. Vitality now officially have 6 players on their roster, most recently adding Nivera. They also just announced they are planning on making substitutions mid-series based on the maps, which is evidently allowed in this tournament. It’s unclear whether this will be completely dependent on the actual map being played or if it will be based on performance (aka subbing out someone not playing well). Either way it sets up to be a nightmare for DFS. Zywoo is likely safe, although the coach did mention giving players rest as part of the reasoning, so it’s possible even he sits if Vitality is playing in a matchup where they’ve already locked in advancing from group play or something similar. Fortunately this won’t be the case in Blast as every group stage game is important. Apex is also likely fairly safe, as he is the IGL so taking him out of the lineup causes a pretty big disruption to the team. Shox has fairly consistently been their 2nd best fragger, so in theory he should be somewhat safe most of the time as well. Rpk and Misutaaa are definitely at a high risk for substitutions. Long story short, Vitality are now much riskier in DFS, especially Rpk and Misutaaa. DK is adding Nivera to the slate even though they initially left him out. If news were to come out that he’s starting before lock (they are the first game) I would be all over that play as I’d expect him to have virtually 0 ownership but I think he will immediately become Vitality’s 2nd best fragger, or at worst 3rd best.
My expectation for Thursday’s slate is that this uncertainty will cause Col as a whole to come in higher owned than Vitality. Zywoo will almost definitely be the highest owned player from the game (and on the slate) but then I expect all of BlameF, jks, and Poizon (possibly also k0nfig) to come in higher owned than anyone else on Vitality. This makes me want to play a Vitality 3 stack, as I think there could be some adjusting time for the new Col roster to gel, BlameF and jks typically have played similar lurk type roles and 1 will likely have to change that. However, it’s impossible to trust Vitality right now, so I’m more likely to land on Col 3 stacks and fade Vitality. I’ll have some of everyone on Col except for Rush. If I do run Vitality, I’ll run Zywoo, Apex, and Shox as my stack (again, unless Nivera is announced as starting, in which case I’d get him in as well), as I think they’re the 3 least likely to get subbed out. Make sure to pay attention to twitter before the games start to see if Vitality mentions anything about their lineup for the day.
In the Faze vs Big game, Olofmeister is standing in for Niko, who is set to move to G2. Draftkings did update their player pool to include Olof, but they initially didn’t have him, and still also have Niko in the pool (who currently doesn’t have an Out listing, which could lead to him having some ownership still). The pricing for Big reflects an expectations of Niko in the lineup, as Big aren’t really priced up in this matchup, only Xantares is expensive, coming in at $9.0k. I would have had minimal interest in Faze in this matchup even with Niko, but without him? No thanks. I’m going to be completely on Big here, I’ll be rotating all 5 of them in my stacks. I can see a small case for running a 2-1 with Broky as the 1, but I’ll likely just stick with Big 3 stacks.
As always, I’ll start here with Zywoo. If you are running a Vitality stack, run Zywoo at captain. If they win he’s a good bet to post the top score on the slate, and he should come in with slightly lower captain ownership than normal as I imagine a lot of people are going to be running him with 2 (or even 3) Col in the same lineup and therefore not captaining him. Before Vitality added their substitution threat I had limited interest in captains outside of Zywoo, I definitely don’t have any interest now.
On the Col side of this matchup, BlameF, jks, and poizon all make for strong captain options. I actually sneakily like poizon the best, as he’s still going to be in his same awp’ing role that we’ve seen him post huge games from before. With how cheap he is, I expect him to come in high owned in the flex, but not in the captain spot, as running him there leads to leaving a lot of salary on the table. I think that’s fine as he genuinely has top score on the slate upside. BlameF and jks do too of course, so I’ll also have some of them, but I expect each to carry decent ownership.
From Big I’ll be captaining Xantares and Syrson. Tabsen finally came to life a bit against Fnatic in their last matchup of the Dreamhack Open, but I still don’t trust him enough to captain him right now.
Good luck on Thursday!