We’re into the part of the Challengers stage where all the games are either winner advances or loser is eliminated, so they’re all Bo3. DK has still decided to cut the 4am games off, leaving us with a 4 game slate that locks at 6:15 am EDT. The games are:
Movistar Riders (73% implied win probability) vs Tyloo
Ence (64%) vs Big
Mouz (81%) vs Renegades
Astralis (80%) vs Pain
Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues
Bubzkji is in the player pool but is on Astralis’ bench. Don’t play him.
It’s a bit weird to see so many games that are such big mismatches this far along in the stage. After all, these teams all have the same record as their opponent. However, I do think all the lines are about right. If you told me at the beginning of 2021 that I’d be agreeing with a line that has Ence as 2 to 1 favorites over Big I never would’ve believed you, but here we are.
Anyways, because I think all the lines are accurate and how step they are, Big are really the only underdog I’m interested in stacking. I mentioned the other day and I’ll say it again, K1to is a good guy to put in those stacks as when he does well the team tends to do well since he plays super aggressive. But even Big I don’t love in tournaments because anyone who decides to play an underdog is likely to end up on them since they’re the only team with a real shot per the odds.
I’ll like only use one-offs (INS, Alistair, Saffee, Dank1ng, Summer, Attacker) from the other underdogs unless I really need the savings.
What I’ll be focused on here in zigging when everyone zags within the favorites. For example, at the very top of the pricing, Magisk and Dupreeh have significantly worse stats as compared to the other top guys. This should keep their rostership down, as those stats cause their projections to be lower of course. The field is going to prioritize Ropz, Frozen, and Sunpayus over the Astralis players, making them a strong GPP play.
Also, I’m thinking Sunpayus being not as good on LAN might be a thing. Outside of a series against Copenhagen Flames where he absolutely dominated, he’s really been struggling (relative to his usual performances) both at this LAN and the qualifier. He’s my fade of the day (of course now that means you should lock him at captain because he’ll score 100).
I’m less confidence about the rostership here, but I’d also expect the Ence guys to come in low. They’re the smallest favorite but are priced up right with the big favorites, that should keep people off them. Spinx and Dycha are both solid GPP plays.
Who I do like from Mouz, are Dexter and acor. Both profile as decent values, and while each one might have decent ownership, I’d expect playing them both in 1 lineup to be underutilized, as it means you can’t play Frozen + Ropz.
Glaive is also a solid value play if you want to 3-stack Astralis, he’s been getting a lot of kills to go along with his high deaths so far this tournament, which is leading to decent fantasy numbers.
With pricing being pretty tight it’s a good day to go mid-range captain. Preferably guys who won’t break the bank but still have upside. My favorites in this category are Bymas, alex, and acor (upside is a bit questionable with him though tbh). Hades was baaaad against Faze the other day but has otherwise been solid this tournament, he’s another solid play in that range.
If you can afford the high end at captain everything I said above about Magisk, Dupreeh, Spinx, and Dycha remains true here. I’m still fading Sunpayus and will likely be under the field on Ropz and Frozen.
I don’t love going all the way value at captain this slate, but Glaive and Dexter would be my $6k and under guys if I do.
Good luck on Thursday!