Welcome back. On Wednesday we only have a showdown slate from the Blast Premier Fall Series. Because of how the tournament is set up, the winner of the early game plays OG in the “Grand Final” of the group, meaning Draftkings obviously can’t include both games on the same slate. The game is:
Navi (52% implied win probability) vs NiP
This is of course a rematch from Monday, where Navi took a relatively easy 2-0 series win. Both teams had really weird map picks. NiP elected to take Inferno instead of Overpass. At the time they had a 43% win rate on Inferno while Overpass is by far the map they look best on. Meanwhile Navi picked Train instead of Dust 2 even though NiP are pretty good on train and are winless in 3 tries on Dust 2. I expect both teams to change things up on Wednesday with their map selection.
Assuming they actually pick Overpass, I again like NiP in this series. I’m hopeful that the field will just look at the result from last time and decide to 3 stack Navi, but I’m a fan of the NiP 3 stack. In that 3 stack I’m going to run back S1mple almost every single time. Maybe I’ll run a couple of lineups with Electronic as the 1, but I would be very surprised if S1mple isn’t Navi’s top scorer. Tuesday against OG the rest of Navi has K-D differentials of: -10,-11, -11, and -18. S1mple on the other hand was +20. He actually had the most frags in the match even though Navi lost by scores of 16-14 and 16-9. Play S1mple.
I’ll be rotating all 5 NiP players at captain, trying to differentiate that way, as twist, hampus, and maybe even Plopski are likely to go low owned. I’m also going to run some S1mple captain in lineups with 3 NiP players. In a 3 map NiP win, it’s very possible S1mple has the top score on the slate and then 3 NiP players have the next 3. Given that you run 2 captains in showdown, everyone from Navi is in play as well, but outside of S1mple I’m not going to run much of any of them. I’m really putting all of my eggs in the NiP basket on this slate.
Good luck on Wednesday!