Wednesday is day 2 of the Challengers Stage of the major, and we’ve already got some teams on the brink of elimination. With that (and also for teams with a chance to advance) comes Bo3 series. We have a nice 4 game Bo3 slate on Wednesday, with lock at 6:15 am EDT. The games are:

Heroic (67% implied win probability) vs Copenhagen Flames

Faze (55%) vs VP

Astralis (63%) vs Godsent

Pain (70%) vs Sharks

Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues

Bubzkji is in the player pool but is on Astralis’ bench. Don’t play him.

Slate Analysis

I’m going to be a bit shorter today than yesterday. Jumping right in to my favorite play, it’s Copenhagen Flames. And while I do like CPFL, this play is honestly less about them and more about Heroic. It’s clear that Heroic are not the same team on LAN that they are online. They haven’t looked like the same team at all in their LAN’s this year, and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Roej, Nicodooz, and Jabbi are the top fraggers here, but Zyphon isn’t far behind in 4th, make sure to mix him in if you’re multi-entering.

Right behind CPFL in terms of my favorite GPP plays is Godsent. Again, this is mostly predicated on their opponent, as Astralis looked BAD on Tuesday. Maybe they’ve ironed things out overnight, but I doubt they’ve had enough time to make any meaningful changes. Godsent are also a solid team, with Felps and Dumau the clear top fraggers, making Godsent an attractive 2-stack option. latto and b4rtin do put up respectable FP/r numbers in 3rd and 4th if you want to 3 stack them.

Karrigan has the lads playing great for Faze (and he’s turned back the clock himself), I actually agree that they’re slight favorites over a new look VP team that really screwed Sanji. He played the most sacrificial role of any pro I’ve ever seen and somehow he gets the blame for VP’s struggles. Anyways, that’s neither here nor there, I’m going to split my exposure between Faze and VP.

Lastly, I’m going to have minimal Sharks stacks. Pain know how to deal with Brazilian CS seeing as they’re Brazilian themselves, and they should make short work of the Sharks. I really like Nekiz’s pricepoint, and I’m hopefully that the lack of name recognition will keep his rostership somewhat in check.

Top Captains

Speaking of Pain, Saffee is my top captain on the slate. His rostership shouldn’t be too high with plenty of other high end options (and again lack of name recognition), but make no mistake, the guy can AWP.

I also really like both Yekindar and Twistzz. The coinflip nature of the game should keep the field largely away, and whoever manages to come out on top has big time upside. Jame is always an option at captain as well, and is one of the safer plays since he is always going to keep his deaths in check.

If you want to go a bit cheaper I like Dumau a lot as well. He’s only $6.8k (flex), but has upside to match anyone on the slate, he’s 3rd on the slate in 3 month FP/r (trailing only saffee and his teammate felps).

That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!

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