We have another 2 game slate on Tuesday. Interestingly the way Blast is set up is each group plays 1 at a time, so it’s the same teams as Monday. The winners play each other and the losers play each other. Lock is at 11:30 am EST again and the games are:
Navi (58% implied win probability) vs OG
EG (53%) vs NiP
On Monday we saw EG make their EU debut against OG. They started off slowly, getting beaten fairly easily on Mirage and then going down 8-2 on Inferno. They came roaring back on Inferno, and then lost a tight matchup on Overpass on map 3. Overall, I was impressed with their resolve, but definitely think they’re going to be an average EU team instead of one competing for titles.
Moving on to Tuesday, pricing is again pretty loose. It’s somewhat difficult to captain S1mple or Brehze in a Navi/EG 3/3 lineup, but there are ways to make it work. I don’t think the pricing is tight enough to affect ownership. I’d expect the ownership to go Navi > EG > NiP > OG. This is again the S1mple effect, as he was upwards of 80% owned in most contests on Monday. I’d expect similar numbers Tuesday.
I again think this is a slate where you can reasonably run a 2-1 from the Navi/OG game with S1mple as the 1. NiP made a highly questionable map choice picking Inferno instead of Overpass, hopefully OG won’t fall into a similar trap and are actually able to win their map pick. However I do think Navi should take this series whereas I was leaning towards NiP on Monday, mostly because of how the maps match up. I’m most likely to run a Navi 3 stack from this game, I’d expect the Navi bottom fraggers to be fairly low owned again, as they were on Monday. I won’t be running any 2-1 with OG as the 1, as I think getting the 2nd Navi player and the 1 OG player right is a lot more difficult than 2 OG players + S1mple. I’d rather use more lineups to try to get the perfect combination of 3 Navi players with 3 from the other game.
From the EG/NiP game, I again like the NiP side. In my opinion they’re similar in skill level to OG, maybe even a bit better. Hopefully they don’t inexplicably pick Inferno again on Tuesday, I doubt they will given that it’s been EG’s best map while they played in NA. I’ll be running strictly 3 stacks from this game as both teams are somewhat hard to predict where the scoring will come from, EG is a little more straightforward than NiP, but still not nearly as straightforward as Navi. I’ll have some of both sides, but a bit more NiP than EG. With a Navi/NiP 3/3 stack you can fit electronic with S1mple captain, so an interesting pivot is to run a Navi 3 stack without Electronic. He’s recently shown, like he did on Monday, a propensity to bottom frag on occasion, and I imagine most lineups that stack Navi and NiP will include him.
It’s not quite S1mple or bust for me on this slate, but it’s damn close. He’s far and away my favorite play, regardless of how insane his ownership will likely be. I prefer to differentiate my lineup elsewhere, doing things I mentioned above where I drop down to more bottom fraggers than I need to in the hopes that a normal top fragger underperforms.
Pivots off of S1mple I’d consider are:
If I pivot off S1mple I’m basically banking on either a Navi loss, the EG/NiP game having several overtimes, or another player having their best match of the year. I’ll mostly be on the NiP/EG captains if I’m running OG, if I’m stacking Navi I’m running S1mple at captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!