It’s finally here! After 2 years, we have a CSGO Major back on LAN! As the “Challengers Stage” begins, we have a fun day of Bo1 games. The tournament itself starts at 4am EDT, but Draftkings has cut down to a 4 game slate starting at 6am EDT. The games on the slate are:
Big (54% implied win probability) vs Entropiq
Movistar Riders (61%) vs Renegades
Heroic (82%) vs Tyloo
Mouz (80%) vs Sharks
Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues
Player Pool appears correct. There shouldn’t be any surprises in terms of who is playing.
I’m going to give a few quick thoughts on each team. Because it’s Bo1 I’m not completely ruling anyone out, but I wouldn’t begrudge you for not playing any Sharks or Tyloo. I’m just going in the order I listed the teams above, so it doesn’t have to do with who I like best.
BIG – This is a gross team from a fantasy perspective. Their leading FP/r scorer, Tabsen, only averages .58 FP/r over 3 months. That’s good for 25th on the slate (Renegades, Tyloo, and Sharks all have inflated stats from playing in weak regions but still, you get the point). The good news is this keeps their rostership down, and on a Bo1 slate anything can happen. I wouldn’t expect anyone here to be chalk, which makes Tabsen and Syrson strong plays in GPPs. I also want to briefly mention K1to. He’s cheap in $5.2k, and while his .39 FP/r is not good, it is tied for 3rd on the team. But beyond that number, he plays in a super aggressive role for BIG. If they win, particularly if they win by a lot, K1to is likely to have a good game. I wouldn’t use him as a one-off, but in Big stacks K1to is a strong play.
Entropiq – Entropiq are super balanced in terms of FP/r. El1an is the “star” but he’s only .04 FP/r ahead of Krad over the past 3 months. In fact, the top 4 players (Lack1 being the one in last) are within .08 of each other. Even Lack1 is at a respectable .47 FP/r (.1 behind Nickelback for 4th). Again, I wouldn’t expect much rostership here, making them a strong GPP play. All 5 players are viable.
Movistar Riders – Sunpayus is the rising star here, but don’t sleep on Mopoz and alex. Both are capable riflers, and could put up big numbers in this spot. Renegades are something of an unknown quantity, it’s been months since we’ve seen them in EU, and they struggled when they were last there. Of course, that wasn’t on LAN and was right after Dexter left the team, so I’d expect them to have a bit better showing. Still, Movistar Riders are solid favorites, and should come in under-rostered outside of Sunpayus (more on that in a minute). Despite being favorites, this is my favorite GPP stack.
Renegades – Renegades dominate the Australia/Oceania region. They almost never lose. Because of this, they have absolutely insane stats. All 5 of their players are in the top 13 in FP/r over 3 months on the slate, and they make up 3 out of the top 4 (with only a Tyloo player, another team that dominates their region, joining them). Unless you go nuts on correcting their projections down to account for the Vegas line, they’re going to project very well for their prices. Speaking of their prices, Renegades are also fairly cheap. They help you fit teams like Heroic and Mouz. Add all this up and what do you get? A recipe for a LOT of rostership given their Vegas Odds. If you want to fire up them up in cash or SE (Alistair in particular gives some safety since he is the AWP), go for it, but they are my fade of the day in GPPs. I’ll have a very limited amount of Renegades stacks.
Heroic – We have a classic situation of Heroic as huge favorites and at least one of their players mispriced. However, DK has finally realized that refrezh is currently their best player, so he’s not the one priced too low. Instead, it seems to be Teses turn to be the mispriced guy, as he’s now been too cheap I believe 2 slates in a row. It’s not as egregious at last time when he was under $6k, but expect Teses and the rest of Heroic to be chalk city on this slate. The only exception to that will likely be Stavn. He’s in the, also a classic for Heroic, spot of “priced up even though the stats don’t dictate it” and should be rostered way less than probably all 4 of his teammates. He’s the way to get different in GPPs. He’s also been playing a super aggressive role lately, so independent of rostership I like him as a play. If Heroic roll over Tyloo there’s a good chance he pops off.
Tyloo – Tyloo aren’t quite as extreme an examply as Renegades, but their stats are also super inflated. Their players are all in the top 19 on the slate in FP/r. However, they are the biggest underdogs on the slate so they shouldn’t see ownership like Renegades. Heroic have struggled on LAN this year, and maybe Tyloo have a couple surprise strats they can pull out. It’s unlikely though, so I’d only take a couple shots on Tyloo if you MME. If you do stack them, Summer, Attacker, and Dank1ng are the guys you want.
Mouz – Did you know, they top FP/r guy on Mouz over the past 3 months is actually not Ropz, it’s Frozen. Through a combination of Frozen playing really well and ropz numbers being down a bit for his lofty standards, Frozen has actually overtaken Ropz as the top FP/r guy on the team, and it holds true in the 1 month data as well. DK obviously knows this, as they’ve priced Frozen $1.2k above Ropz. I expect that will push rostership away from Frozen, and makes him an interesting GPP play. Mouz should be able to crush Sharks, and if you can get Frozen at low rostership he could win you a GPP. Bymas has also been playing well of late, he’s only .09 FP/r behind Ropz over the past 3 months. That’s still a decent gap, but it’s not impossible that Bymas outscores Ropz on a single map. A mouz stack with no Ropz is a very interesting idea on this slate, and a good way to get different.
Sharks – Last but not entirely least is Sharks. Brazilian CS is still strong, but all the best Brazilians have moved to NA, leaving behind a weak SA region. I don’t expect Sharks to do well in this tournament, but they are an attractive team from a DFS perspective. I say that because they have 2 players who are the clear top fraggers. Those players are Zevy and Lucaozy. There’s a big gap between them and the rest of the team, particularly over the past month. I won’t have much of it, but that 2-stack could be solid even if Sharks just keep it close against Mouz.
Pricing isn’t “loose” per se on this slate, but there’s enough value out there that I’m looking for raw points in my captain spot. A few of my favorites are:
I’m also fine with going value captain, although I do expect Sjuush to be somewhat popular. I prefer to pivot to Entropiq, where both Lack1 and Nickelback are solid value cpt options. K1to is in that same boat on the other side of that matchup.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!