We’re back down to a 3 game slate on Saturday, as the playoffs are slowly coming to a close. The slate still locks at 7am EST and the games are:
Heroic (57% implied win probability) vs NiP
Big (54%) vs Fnatic
OG (60%) vs Sprout
DK has really been experimenting with their pricing this week. There have been fairly drastic changes from day to day. They’ve definitely tightened the prices up compared to Friday, there are 8 players 8k or higher compared to 6 Friday, and that’s with 2 fewer games on Saturday’s slate.
Amidst all these pricing changes, a couple of teams essentially got reset back to what they were at to start the week. One of those teams was Heroic. For some unknown reason, Cadian is back to $6.6k. He’s been playing well lately, and except him to come in at super high ownership. On a slate oddly devoid of star (fantasy) players, he could be the highest owned player on the slate.
Fnatic is also back to their beginning of the week pricing, and if you believe that the recent performance of Flusha and JW will continue then they are also underpriced. Brollan is fairly cheap at only $7.4k as well.
Meanwhile, Draftkings has both Big and OG priced to match their (very) recent performance. ISSAA has suddenly leapt all the way to $9.0k, and Mantuu is all the way down at $7.0k. I expect Mantuu to be fairly popular and ISSAA to go largely overlooked. For Big, Xantares is rightfully priced up, he’s absolutely carried them for much of this tournament. Meanwhile, Tabsen is getting cheaper and cheaper. I’m still not touching him, and something just seems to be off right now.
The actual games on this slate are all super close. They should be, we’re in the late stages of the playoffs. All 3 are honestly toss-ups, so I think lineup construction and ownership become more important than analyzing the actual games (this is honestly pretty true always, unless we can gain an edge Vegas is missing in their lines, which definitely aren’t as efficient in esports as they are in traditional sports). On this slate, I like playing the underdogs. All 3 are in solid spots to win, and these matchups truly could go either way. I expect the underdogs to have a good amount less ownership than the favorites and I want to be on that side.
Another quick note about lineup construction. I’m a firm believer on never playing opponents on slates bigger than 2 games. It can be tempting given how tight the matchups should be, but you need so much more to break right for you than just playing a stack from one team. Not only do you need the series to go 3 games you essentially need all 3 maps to be close (or one to go to several OT’s) or you need your guy to somehow frag well while his team gets blown out. Plus you need to get the top 2 or 3 fraggers right out of all 10 players. This is compared to a traditional stack where you just need your team to win (and not get blown out if they lose a map) and to get the top 2 or 3 fraggers out of 5 right.
While today I’ll be running 29/30 players in my flex player pool (sorry Borup), I will still narrow it down to my favorite 2 or 3 per team at the captain slot. My captain pool will be (in order of gametime)
Heroic: Cadian, Stavn, Teses
NiP: Nawwk, Rez
Big: Xantares, Syron
Fnatic: Krimz, Brollan
OG: Mantuu, Valde, ISSAA
Sprout: Dycha, Faven, Snatchie
My favorite plays are again the underdogs, in particular NiP. This team has suddenly turned it on and Nawwk and Rez have both been playing really well (save for a miserable inferno from Nawwk on Friday). I also like Brollan quite a bit as well as dycha.
From the favorites, Xantares is my favorite play, followed by Cadian, although his ownership scares me a bit.
That’s it from me, good luck on Saturday!