We’ve got a rare 5 game playoff slate on Thursday, with what should be some good matchups. Lock time is 7 am EST and the games are:
Vitality (56% implied win probability) vs Big
Godsent (56%) vs North
Heroic (69%) vs Sprout
OG (64%) vs NiP
G2 (50.5%) vs Faze
Normally on these big slates what I try to do first is eliminate entire teams that I’m not interested in playing anyone from. However, given that we are decently far into the playoffs, all of these teams are fairly evenly matched, and there is no one I feel comfortable X’ing out right off the bat. The good news is that this should cause ownership to be fairly spread out, which means the plays we like are likely to come in at reasonable ownership levels. There are of course a couple of exceptions to this.
The first and likely biggest exception is Zywoo. At least DK made him the most expensive player on the slate Thursday, but he’s still far too cheap at $9.6k. Last time out against NiP, Zywoo had a “bad” game, one his worst honestly. He still ended up with 62 DK points. His floor is simply so much higher than anyone else’s, and his ceiling is just as high if not higher than anyone else too. He’ll be chalk, but again, don’t overthink it, play Zywoo.
The other possible exception is ISSAA. OG have the 2nd best implied win probability, he just posted a huge game Wednesday, and he’s only $7.0k. He’ll likely end up fairly chalky. He’s a fine play in cash or single entry/small field, but in bigger GPPs there are some pivots near him in price that I prefer. More on this in a second.
To me the key to this slate is: What do you think of North? We have a couple of ardent North fans in the TESD discord (btw tons of good conversations in there, get in it if you aren’t, link is at the top of the page), but personally I don’t see it. Since I don’t think North are very good, I obviously like Godsent. Less obviously, it also has me a bit down on Heroic. Heroic have been struggling of late, coming in having lost 6 of their last 8 matches. The only two wins are against Endpoint and North. I put Sprout at about the same level as North (they are 1-1 in series, Sprout leads 3-2 in maps in the past month), which means I think Sprout have a chance in this series. Even if they lose, they’re so cheap that they could be the better fantasy plays if they can keep the series close. dycha at only $6.4k, faveN at $5.8k and Snatchie at $5.2k are all potentially great value plays and I’ll have plenty of stacks of them.
I glossed over Godsent a bit above, but I’ll be loading up on them here yet again. Everyone except Krystal is in play, I’ll be running plenty of 2 and 3 stacks of them. zehN in particular has been quiet this tournament, but at some point he’s going to have a huge game.
We already covered Zywoo, but for the rest of that game there are a couple more plays I like. Shox had a huge game against NiP, and is only $7.2k. Even after the big game I expect his ownership to be fairly low given all the other plays around him. I’ll have a bit of him here. I know I just said to play Zywoo, but on the other side Big are likely to go underowned. Opponents of Zywoo, S1mple, and a couple of the other DFS darlings always go underowned. Xantares has been balling out of late and is only $7.8k. Him plus Syrson should make for a low owned stack, and if you aren’t playing Zywoo I’d play at least one of these two if not both. I won’t be playing Tabsen though. As we touched on the other day he’s really in a rut right now, I’d even play Tizian over him at the moment (I won’t be targeting Tizian at all, just making a point here).
Outside of ISSA in the OG vs NiP game, I’m not a huge fan of any of the other OG plays. They aren’t a super high scoring team they often win ugly and they spread their kills around, but they’re priced fairly expensively. Maybe Valde at $8.0k is worth a look, but I prefer other plays to all 3 of Mantuu, Aleksib (sorry Pat), and NBK. The NiP side makes for an interesting pivot. Rez, Plopski, and Nawwk all come in under $7.0k, and while they are moderate underdogs here, this matchup is definitely winnable for them. Other than Sprout, they are my preferred team for value. I like Nawwk the best, followed by Rez and then Plopski. Hampus is also playable down at $5.4k if you need the extreme savings (I do like Snatchie and faveN better).
The last game on the slate is the G2 vs Faze matchup. Both teams have struggled of late, but I think G2 have looked better than Faze. KennyS has really stepped his game up of late, although it has unfortunately coincided with a bit of a drop-off from Nexa and a steep decline from Jackz. Hunter has been his always solid self, and he and Kenny are my favorite plays from G2, with a little Nexa mixed in. I’m either going to fully fade Faze or just have a little bit of Broky. Rain fragged out on Wednesday (as they were swept by NiP) but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance. Meanwhile, Broky struggled but is only $7.6k on Thursday. Niko is priced too closely to Zywoo for my liking so unless I can fit both I won’t have him, and I simply have no interest in anyone else from Faze right now.
As always, the captain conversation starts with Zywoo. He’s expensive, but I do feel like there’s enough value to make Zywoo work on this slate. If you’re paying up for captain, pay all the way up for Zywoo.
However, playing Zywoo in the flex is perfectly reasonable if you want to spend down at captain. There’s a few plays in the $7-8k range that I like and a few even cheaper.
My favorite $7-8k plays are (in no particular order):
Farlig (he’s $8.2k but close enough)
For the cheap plays under $7k it’s basically Sprout and NiP that I like. Dycha is far and away my favorite of the group, although I do like faveN and Snatchie as well. Those 3 are all ahead of NiP for me, but I’d mix in some Nawwk, and maybe a little Rez and Plopski as well.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!