Wednesday brings us another 3 game slate of the playoffs of the Dreamhack Open. We have one upper bracket game (the Astralis game) and two lower brackets games that start at 7 am EST. The games are:
Astralis (72% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
OG (53%) vs G2
Faze (60%) vs NiP
All 5 members of Astralis are finally priced up. This should at least flatten out their ownership a bit within their team, although I do expect them to be popular overall with how loose the pricing is in the other 2 games. I expect Dupreeh to be the chalkiest member of Astralis, and possibly the highest owned on the slate, as he has been their best player of late yet is priced 2nd cheapest at $8.4k. Astralis are likely to be extra chalky as a whole since the other 2 games are such toss-ups. I do think Fnatic have been playing well of late and deserve a bit more credit than the line gives them, but not enough to where I’ll be loading up on them myself, I’ll also be on the Astralis side here.
Even though G2 are only the slightest of underdogs against OG in this spot, I do think they’re again being slightly undervalued. I think they should be slight favorites here. They’ve won both head to head series since the player break (both tightly contested 3-mappers). I’m hopeful that since both teams are priced effectively the same, OG will come in higher owned as the “favorite”. Hunter and Nexa are two of my favorite plays on the slate, as they are both affordable and if G2 does win both will likely need to have big series to make that happen. I’ll mix in a little KennyS but will be staying away from Jackz and Amanek, as they’ve really struggled lately. On the OG side, Valde and Issa are both underpriced, and I expect each to be popular. Mantuu may come in a little underowned since he’s the most expensive player from this game, so I like him a good amount for tournaments. Ultimately though, I’ll have more G2 than I have OG here.
The final game on the slate is Faze vs NiP. This is an interesting game because both teams come into it really struggling, neither is very good right now. That said, I have more hope that NiP right the ship than Faze. Before Nawwk sat out because of injury, NiP were playing really well. Now that he’s back, I expect them to eventually return to form. Now will that be Wednesday against Faze? I doubt they’ll look markedly better than Tuesday against Vitality, but that might still be enough to beat this current Faze team. The price discounts also are nice, so I like NiP a good deal in this spot for DFS. Rez, Nawwk, and Plopski are all underpriced, and Hampus makes for a really interesting salary saver all the way down at $4.8k. I’ll mostly be using NiP as my way of getting to Astralis stacks on this slate. In the lineups I do run Faze, Broky will be my priority. He’s priced down to $8.0k while Niko is priced all the way up at $10.2k, and while I prefer to pay up for Astralis, he makes for an interesting tournament pivot.
Dupreeh will likely be popular at the captain slot, but he’s still my favorite captain on the slate. He isn’t so expensive that you have to go to extreme lengths to find value in the rest of your lineup, plus he has top score on the slate upside. All 3 of Magisk, es3tag, and Device are interesting pivots who should be lower owned, but they’re also more expensive so be prepared to play at least 2 value plays (NiP stack anyone?) to fit them.
From G2, both Hunter and Nexa make for strong captain plays, and save you a bit of money off of the Astralis players. They’re my 2nd and 3rd favorite captains behind Dupreeh. On the OG side, Valde is worth captaining, as is Mantuu. I won’t have much as I expect Valde in particular to be fairly popular, but they’ll definitely be in my pool.
Nawwk and Rez are solid pay all the way down captain targets, as either one allows you to stack the rest of your lineup with studs. I’ll definitely have some of each of them and maybe a bit of Plopski as well. I may run 1 or 2 Hampus captain lineups as his extreme savings let you play whoever else you want in the lineup. From Faze, I’ll have some Broky and and Niko as a pivot off of Astralis. I expect Astralis to be the highest owned team in terms of captains and while they are the safest bet, they do spread out scoring enough that someone from one of the other 2 games could end up the days top scorer. Broky and Niko are both solid bets for that if Faze manage to get the win.
That’s it for me, good luck Wednesday!