The playoffs for the Dreamhack Open continue Tuesday, with 3 more games. The Vitality game is an upper bracket game, meaning the loser isn’t eliminated, while the other two are lower bracket, meaning the loser is eliminated. The slate locks at 7am EST and the games are:
Vitality (67% implied win probability) vs NiP
Godsent (51%) vs Sprout
Heroic (73%) vs North
This slate is likely to come down to the Godsent vs Sprout game. I personally think Vitality should be favored even more heavily than they are, NiP does not look good lately and Vitality still have Zywoo last time I checked. North on the other hand, got lucky with their group draw, and were dispatched of by Fnatic fairly easily. I don’t think they stand much of a chance against Heroic. It’s going to be tough to differentiate, and this is a rare slate where I actually prefer cash or small field/single entry type contests, as I think the “optimal” build is fairly obvious.
The cornerstone of the build is of course Zywoo. Somehow, Zywoo is still not the most expensive play on the slate when he should be priced head and shoulders above everyone on this slate. Don’t overthink this. Play Zywoo. In the optimal build the next piece to lock in is Cadian. He’s been playing really well lately, and is the cheapest non-Borup way to get exposure to the biggest favorite on the slate. Next, you’ll want a couple of cheap pieces from the Godsent/Sprout game…Great, Maden and Farlig (or 2 of the 3 of denis, Snatchie, and Faven if you want to go Sprout) fit that bill. Round it out with 2 more of whoever you can fit from Heroic (maybe Vitality if you need to for salary reasons) and that’s a pretty solid “optimal” lineup build.
This begs the question of how can we be unique in GPPs? The simplest way is to play NiP and/or North, that’ll definitely be unique. However, those are both thin plays from my perspective. NiP because it means you’re fading Zywoo (or running opponents, which I guess is ok specifically with Zywoo but I still don’t like to do it) and North because they are clearly outmatched and not even all that discounted.
How else can we be unique? One way is by stacking Heroic without Cadian. Now I’m not advocating playing Borup, but some combination (or all 3 if you can fit it) of Teses, niko, and Stavn and no Cadian should be unique. Stavn in particular will likely come in low owned, as he’s more expensive than Zywoo. I think Zywoo is a much better play, but if you can fit both I think Stavn is interesting.
The 2nd way is by playing a 2nd or even 2nd and 3rd player from Vitality. They’re fairly pricey on this slate and I expect most people to run naked Zywoo with a Heroic stack. Paying $8.8k for Shox will definitely not be popular, but he has shown the ability to put up big games when Zywoo isn’t hogging every single kill. RPK at $7.6k will likely be a bit more popular, but I’d expect him to come in lower owned than either Cadian or Teses.
The last way I like on this slate to differentiate is by paying up in the Godsent/Sprout game. I expect that the cheap guys, Maden and Farlig for Godsent and Snatchie, Faven, and possibly Spidi and denis for Sprout will carry decent ownership. The high end guys, zehN and Styko for Godsent and dycha for Sprout, will likely go somewhat overlooked with everyone looking to cram Zywoo and Heroic into their lineups. zehN in particular has been quiet so far this tournament, but has shown massive upside in the past. I like him a lot as a GPP play on this slate (again, preferably pairing him with Zywoo as opposed to a Zywoo pivot).
Zywoo is the obvious captain choice on this slate. He’ll likely be 25-30% owned in the captain slot, maybe even higher. Even at that ownership if I can fit him at captain I’m going to play him there. However, the common theme to my suggestions for GPP lineups above is that it’s playing some fairly expensive guys. To fit them plus Zywoo we’ll need to pay down at captain. It’s kind of an implied part of what I was saying about being unique above.
My favorite target for paying down at captain is Maden. We have him projected for 0.3 DK points less than Styko, yet he costs $2.8k less (flex pricing). He has just as much upside as anyone not named Zywoo on the slate. You could also go slightly higher and captain Farlig. He’s a little bit more stable of a player than Maden, but he also hasn’t shown quite as much upside. If you want to get real nuts, denis is only $4k (flex price) on the other side of this matchup. You can make some real nice looking lineups with him in at captain. Snatchie and Faven also make for decent cheapish to mid-range captains.
I’m going to stay away from Cadian captain, who I expect to be the popular “pay down” captain on the slate. In fact I’m pretty much going to stay away from Heroic captain. They spread their scoring out too much (and aren’t cheap like Godsent who also spread their scoring out) for my liking, and I much prefer Zywoo to either niko or Stavn. I may play a little bit of Teses captain but I’m more likely to just pay further down to one of the guys I’ve already mentioned.
Finally, I will have a little bit of zehN as a similarly priced pivot off of Zywoo. zehN has shown Zywoo like upside (and in more than just one matchup that featured a 4OT map, *cough* Cadian *cough*) and while he doesn’t get there as often and fails way harder when he doesn’t hit it, the potential and ownership differential is enough for me to take a couple of shots.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!