Groups continue on Saturday, with yet another 4 game Bo1 slate. Lock is still at 1pm EDT and the games are:
Heroic (86% implied win probability) vs Endpoint
Astralis (56%) vs Complexity
Vitality (66%) vs Ence
OG (65%) vs Dignitas
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Don’t play Boros, Endpoint is subbing Mirbit in for him as he was unable to get a visa in time to attend the tournament. Also don’t play Allan, he is the coach who was going to play if Mirbit couldn’t, but he is NOT playing.
Don’t play Glaive, he’s still on paternity leave.
Don’t play K0nfig, he’s still recovering from a broken wrist (and is rumored to be leaving for Astralis).
The rest of the player pool appears correct
Since it’s the weekend, tournaments are smaller pretty much across the board. Because of this, I think running 3 stacks is back on the table. You cut off a little bit of upside, but you have a better chance of reaching your lineup’s (slightly lower) ceiling. I will probably still run all 2-2-2 lineups, but I was running some 2-2-1-1, I won’t be doing that on this slate.
As for the games, something feels off to me when I look at the OG/Dig and Vitality/Ence odds. Vitality are better than OG and Dig are at least as good as (I think better than) Ence yet the lines are effectively the same? That doesn’t seem right. I think both lines are actually off by a couple percentage points. I think OG/Dig should be more like 60/40 and Vitality/Ence more like 70/30.
What this means for DFS is I really like Dig. Hallzerk has been great lately, he’s actually scoring the 2nd most FP/r on the whole slate over the past 3 months AND past 1 month, naturally trailing Zywoo in both categories. Forest is right behind him, at 3rd in 3 month FP/r and 4th (refrezh passes him) in 1 month FP/r. The 2 of them make for a great, relatively cheap, stack. They’ll likely get a bit of rostership, but hopefully not anything like the crazy numbers FPX saw on Friday.
Also, the odds being slightly off means I like Vitality. Of course I like Zywoo, the next time he’s a sneaky DFS play will be the first, but the rest of the team is actually usually somewhat sneaky. Recently, Shox has reclaimed his title of the #2 FP/r player, but he, Misutaaa, and Apex are all close. I imagine Apex will be on the most rosters of the bunch, as he’s significantly cheaper than Shox (who is significantly cheaper than Misutaaa), so naturally I like to more expensive 2 for GPP’s if you can fit them.
It’s clear at this point that Heroic on LAN is not the same team as Heroic online. However, they do get a matchup against Endpoint that they should win fairly easily. It’s been the Refrezh show lately, yet he remains underpriced for the millionth straight slate. If you play him, which seems almost inevitable, make sure you’re getting different somewhere else in your lineup. Teses is super expensive which should lead to very few people rostering him. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, even pricier than Zywoo. I like him in GPP’s since he should have almost no rostership. I’d be surprised if he hit double digits.
Lastly, I’d expect Lucky to be fairly chalky after his big performance Friday and given that he’s only $6k still. He’s a fine play but keep in mind over 1/4th of his points came in one round when Heroic tried to knife him and then fed him 4 straight kills while he was in a 1v5 with only a deagle and then scavenged MP9, a round I’m definitely not at all bitter about or anything. I actually like the Col side for GPP’s, particularly Poizon. Poizon has been great lately, propelling himself to 5th in FP/r over the past month on the slate, especially impressive considering Col has only won 43% of their maps played in that time, while everyone else in the top 5 has won 60+%. Interestingly, BlameF has struggled (by his standards lately). The 4 riflers on Col are all between .51 and .54 FP/r over the past month. I do expect BlameF to snap out of it at some point, and the deflated numbers could also deflate his rostership. I am a big fan of running him and Poizon, or really any 2 Col players, on this slate.
Zywoo is the obvious top choice, and he’s not prohibitively expensive/there’s enough value to make it work. Naturally, I want to pivot in GPP’s. Hallzerk, Forest, and Poizon are my favorite pivots, as all 3 have big upside and should be used in the CPT slot on a fraction of the rosters Zywoo is.
I didn’t talk about OG at all above, but if you do play them, and I won’t be by any means going 100% Dig or anything, Flamez has really been hitting his stride lately for the squad. He’s another good choice at captain.
Refrezh will likely be the chalk mid-range option, and while he’s fine I’d rather use the aforementioned Dig guys/Poizon in the same price range. I’ll make a point to include 1 or 2 Teses CPT lineups, mostly because I think no one will be using him and he has explosive upside.
I don’t really think you need to go with a punt captain, but Lucky isn’t really a punt and is only $6k. I’m fine with him at captain if you are trying to fit Zywoo + Teses or even Zywoo + Misutaaa in your lineup.
That does it for me, good luck Saturday!