Tuesday brings us a 2 game slate from the EU Closed Qualifier for IEM Winter. Lock is at 7:30 am EDT and the games are:

Ence (74% implied win probability) vs k23

Spirit (59%) vs FPX

Sub Risk/Player Pool Issues

Player pool is correct, no sub risk or incorrect rosters for any of these teams.

Slate Analysis

This is a fairly interesting slate despite being a 2-gamer. Anyone who has been reading this article for any length of time knows I love FPX, and almost always play a bunch of them when they’re on a slate. While I’m generally heavier than the field on underdogs so I still may be on FPX, that actually won’t be the case on this slate. With Ence as the big favorite, I expect the popular move (outside of playing Ence + Spirit, which will of course be most popular) to be playing Ence + FPX. It’s a fine move, and allows you to fit the best Ence players, but you need to get a little more creative than that to win on 2 game slates.

Part of the reason I don’t like FPX that much is Mir. He’s way underpriced, and will be locked into most of my lineups.

Speaking of underpriced, I’m also very intrigued by X5G7V. He hasn’t been on k23 for all that long, so even his 1-month stats are influenced by his time on his previous team (which for the record did play against similar levels of competition as k23, he just may have been in a different role). However, he still should not be at the absolute bottom of the team/slate, and is a strong value play. I even like playing him with Ence 3 stacks since he’s so cheap. I’ll have a bit of him with 3 Ence + Mir + Degster for example. 

Interestingly, Xsepower has really struggled since joining k23, his FP/r is really bad compared to his norm. This could just be a small sample size thing,  but norbert and fame are my preferred plays if I stack k23.

Top Captains

Degster and Mir stick out as the top captain plays for me on this slate. Spinx and Dycha are also fine, but I’d expect them to get a bit more rostership since Ence are big favorites. Mir’s price could lead to him being highest rostered, but I like him nonetheless.

I’m not likely to go to value captains too often on this slate, but if you do sdy is pretty underpriced, and he is a classic “beat up on lesser competition” guy. FPX aren’t really that much “lesser” but they’re definitely not on the level of a lot of the T1 teams Spirit has been playing.

From the underdogs, Farlig and Norbert are my favorite captain plays. Both have high upside if either of their team’s pulls off the upset.

That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!

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