We’re on to the last day of group play in the Dreamhack Open (EU). These are the “decider” matches of each group. The winner moves into the upper bracket of the playoffs (meaning double elim) while the loser isn’t eliminated but starts in the lower bracket of the playoffs (lose and you’re out). Lock is at 10:30 am EST. The games are:
OG (50.5% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Heroic (66%) vs G2
NiP (59%) vs Sprout
Faze (65%) vs Godsent
The favorites on this slate are fairly priced up, it would be fairly difficult to make a good lineup using just favorites. Fortunately, there are a couple of underdog plays I like on this slate were we can get some solid value plays.
To start us off we have the rematch from 2 days ago of OG vs Fnatic. This is actually the 3rd time in a week that these teams will meet in an official match. OG won the 1st series in 3 maps while Fnatic won the series two days ago, also in 3 maps. I personally think this familiarity helps OG more than it does Fnatic. Fnatic rely on a lot of cheeky strategy and odd plays, so OG should be getting used to playing against that style. That’s not to say that they’ll have completely solved Fnatic, and I do think this game is a toss up, just the odds imply. I like OG’s pricing a bit better, as Krimz is super expensive for Fnatic at $9.0k. Mantuu at only $7.2k and ISSAA at $6.6k are both solid targets. Even Aleksib at $5.8k and NBK all the way down at $4.8k are playable if you really need the savings. On the Fnatic side Brollan’s price of $7.8k is reasonable, and I’ll use a decent amount of him. Also, Golden only $4.6k and as he showed Friday he can certainly put up numbers when he’s on. Overall, I won’t be super heavy on this game in general, and I’ll have a bit more OG than Fnatic.
Also starting at 10:30 we have Heroic and G2 facing off. After having G2 fairly expensive against Astralis on Friday, Draftkings has really lowered their prices. Nexa tops their charts at $8.2k while Hunter is only $7.2k and kennyS is only $6.4k. Meanwhile, Heroic are priced way up, Stavn is $9.8k and Niko is $9.2k. Teses is a much more reasonable $8.0k while Cadian is still down at $7k flat. After his massive performance the other day I expect him to be one of the more popular plays on the slate. As much as I’ve hated on G2’s current form, I do think they’re being a bit disrespected here by both the Draftkings pricing and Vegas. Heroic should probably be favorites, but I’d put it more like 55/45 in Heroic’s favor than the current 65% implied win probability. Between the win odds and the pricing I’ll be landing mostly on G2’s side here. I’ll have a bit of Heroic, but I’ll be loading up on Nexa and Hunter, with a bit of kennyS sprinkled in. I’ll likely stay away from Amanek and Jackz, as there are several bargain basement plays I like better (including the players I already mentioned from OG/FNC and with a couple more still coming).
There’s a phenomenon known as terminal lucidity where terminally ill patients experience a sudden burst of energy and/or clarity (it’s common in people with memory loss illnesses) shortly before they die. It’s very sad and you’re probably wondering why the hell I’m mentioning it in a Counterstrike DFS article. I bring it up because I’m chalking up Faze’s IEM New York run as a sort of counterstrike terminal lucidity moment. For a brief few games, Faze was able to recapture the form they once had, and won a (very short) tournament. On either side of that run though, boy do they look terrible. They got swept by BIG, and then dropped a map against sAw to start this tournament. I personally expect that changes are coming for this team (Niko has been rumored to want to move to G2 to unite with his cousin Hunter). Meanwhile, Godsent swept sAw, and were .1 seconds away from beating BIG on Friday. Literally it was .1 seconds. In the 30th round of map 3, up 15-14 Maden didn’t have a defuse kit (which lowers the defuse time from 10 to 5 seconds) and came up .1 seconds short of finishing his defuse when the bomb exploded. BIG promptly swept the overtime. Remember when I said Godsent has a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory… well, yeah. Anyways this has been an extremely long way of saying I genuinely think Godsent are the better team in this matchup. I’ll be on them heavily here. Farlig and Maden are both great value at $6k and $5.4k respectively. Both Zehn at $7.4k and Styko at $6.8k are also very much in play. The one player I will have a bit of from Faze is Broky. He’s shown that he can put up big games even in losses, and has been a light in the darkness for this team.
The final game of the slate is the Sprout vs NiP game. Sprout really disappointed vs North on Friday, as even though they pushed the series to 3 maps, they got dominated on the 2 maps they lost. The final scores (16-11 and 16-10) actually weren’t indicative of how one sided the maps were as on both of the Sprout went on a run when the map was all but over. These teams did meet on Thursday to start this tournament, and Sprout took it 2-0. That was NiP’s first game back with nawwk who had been on medical leave, and while he played fine, I’m sure it took a bit of adjusting for the team as a whole. They rebounded on Friday, beating Ence 2-0. I expect to come out and get the win here in the rematch against Sprout. Rez at $9.4k is definitely overpriced, but he makes for an interesting play for that reason, as he should be low owned. nawwk and Plopski are much more reasonable priced at $8.4 and $7.0k respectively, and I’ll have plenty of each of them. I’m not entirely ruling Sprout out, and I’ll have some of dycha, snatchie, and faveN.
zehN, Farlig, and Maden are my favorite captains on the slate. All 3 have massive upside and should have low captain ownership. I don’t mind running Broky solo captain either, although he is more expensive and it pushes you to non-Godsent value (which is fine, I just like Godsent better).
If I move away from Godsent, I’ll have a bit of Nexa captain. He has shown that he can put up big numbers even in losses so I like the idea of running him at captain solo or in a G2 stack. Hunter is also an interesting captain play at $7.2k, but I likely won’t land on him as I prefer zehN in that range. I’ll be fading the likely popular Cadian captain play on the other side, as it’s unlikely he has another massive game like he did the other day (and unlikely they play another 4 overtime map that greatly helped him get there). I don’t really love
nawwk and Plopski are both interesting captains from NiP, although like Hunter, Plopski is priced similarly to zehN. dycha is a solid captain choice for Sprout, but once again is priced right next to zehN.
I’ll likely be fading the OG/FNC game when it comes to captain. I expect this game to be another slugfest and neither team has a player(s) dominant enough to where I think going 3 maps is always a good thing (for a Zywoo or S1mple type player I am always rooting for 3 maps (unless I stacked their teammates), as my expectation is they can outscore the 20 points they’d get from a sweep on the map their team loses).
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!