The Dreamhack Open kicks continues on Friday, with another 5 game EU slate. The games are:
Vitality (64% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Faze (80%) vs sAw
Astralis (80%) vs G2
Sprout (61%) vs North
Big (72%) vs Godsent
Friday’s slate is a bit more straightforward, at least according to the odds. Pricing is also a bit tighter though, so there’s a trade-off in that regard. The big favorites are all priced up, so we’ll need to find some value to be able to fit our studs.
Off the bat I’m X’ing G2 out of my player pool. That’s not to say that I don’t think they can beat Astralis, if everything breaks their way they certainly have the talent to compete. However, they’re fairly expensive given how big of underdogs they are, and there are better plays at similar price points. Even though they are just as big of underdogs, sAw are absolutely dirt cheap, so I won’t be crossing them off. I’ll mostly have one-off’s here, maybe a couple of 2 stacks, as even if they lose it’s possible a one-off hits value here. Stadodo is my favorite play, follow by MUTiRiS, but really all 5 players are viable here depending on how much salary you have available.
Zywoo is only $9.4k, 4th highest priced on the slate. In cash, single entry or small field tournaments, play Zywoo. He is by far the best fantasy player on this slate and the fact that DK still doesn’t recognize that in their pricing is mind boggling. In larger tournaments (basically just the big $12), the players priced above or right below Zywoo make for interesting pivots. Niko in particular massively let down a large chunk of the field Thursday, and I expect his ownership to be much lower on Friday. Plus Broky is now priced up at $9.2k so it’s very difficult to fit both (Broky is also a good pivot off Zywoo). I like him as a pivot off Zywoo that can outscore him. Syrson and Dupreeh are a little bit more thin of plays as pivots off Zywoo. Both are on teams that really spread out their fantasy scoring, so not only are you betting that their Vitality lose (or that Zywoo struggles in a win – unlikley) you’re also betting that Syrson or Dupreeh top frag or close to it. Big/Astralis can both win with Syrson/Dupreeh only having a mediocre game.
Speaking of Astralis, I expect Magisk, es3tag, and Glaive to be super popular on Friday, as all 3 are cheap and they are big favorites. Device and Dupreeh will likely carry some ownership, so on that front I do like them as plays that get you exposure to the (tied for) biggest favorite without the ownership that Magisk and es3tag will carry. I’d still prioritize Zywoo over either of them, but if you can fit 2 of the 3 I like the play.
From Big, Tabsen and Xantares are both affordable, coming in at $7.4k and $8.2k respectively. Both of them are solid plays, as is Syrson, although again I would prioritize Zywoo over him. On the Godsent side, Zehn has been playing great of late, but he’s pricey. The rest of the squad however, are cheap and everyone besides Krystal are in play. This is a talented team and I keep telling myself that at some point they are going to put it all together. So far they always seem to find a way to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory, so I won’t go overboard on them here, but the upside is definitely there for them to win and have several players score well.
The game I’m least confident about is the Sprout vs North matchup. It’s likely the rest of the field will also feel the same way. For that reason I’m going to try to make a point to include players from this game in a majority of my lineups. Our projections really like Sprout in particular. snatchie and faveN are a bit underpriced, so they’ll be my top priorities, while dycha is a good play but is more accurately priced. On the North side, all 5 players project pretty similarly, so for that reason I like MSL, cajunb and Aizy as my top targets. I’ll have more Sprout than North, but I’ll have a good deal of both team.
Zywoo will be the highest owned captain on the slate, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t. He’ll also be my highest owned captain. There’s plenty of value to make a strong lineup with him at captain.
I like Niko and Broky a bit as high priced pivots, but if I move off Zywoo I’m like to go with a mid-range or value captain. Snatchie and Faven in particular stick out, as both are near the top of our projections at bargain prices. es3tag is another mid-range captain who I’ll probably have a bit of.
On the North side of that matchup, I’ll have a bit of MSL captain, and maybe even some Aizy to really open the salary up.
I’ll have a little bit of Zehn and Farlig captain, as they both have top score on the slate upside if they can beat Big. Even though Big are the favorite and I’ll have more lineups featuring them, I’m less likely to use them at captain. They spread their scoring out quite a bit so I prefer them in the flex.
That’s it from me, good lucky Friday!