Welcome! We’re back to a 3 game slate on Friday, as the EG/Mad Lions game that was originally part of Wednesday’s slate has been rescheduled to be on this slate. We’re also thankfully past the 90/10 games from the last few days. Lock is at 6:30 am EDT and the games are:
Evil Geniuses (50% implied win probability) vs Mad Lions
Heroic (71%) vs Dignitas
OG (57%) vs Complexity
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool looks good. Mad Lions are no longer a 6 man roster, so no sub risk from them.
Finally an interesting slate. I want to start with the “coinflip” on the day. I think EG’s name is bringing them a lot of respect from Vegas, they’ve been truly terrible lately, playing so poorly they almost missed qualifying for the Major out of NA. I do think this game is more like 60/40 Mad Lions favored. However, EG have been so bad that their stats are all over the place, and with Stan in particular missing a bunch of the beatdowns, his raw stats look “good” compared to his teammates. He technically has the 2nd highest FP/r over the past 3 months, and Draftkings has priced him accordingly. However, EG has won 53% of the maps stan has played over 3 months (because he’s only played against the weak NA competition), which the team as a whole has only won 29% of maps played over 3 months. Make no mistake, Stanislaw is still EG’s worst fantasy player. However, this pricing has opened up some nice potential value. Michu for example is only $4.2k, which is absurdly low, and Brehze and oBo are both also a slot too low in the pricing. I expect this plus the even odds will make EG somewhat popular.
While I like Michu, I like the Mad Lions side of the game much better overall. S1mple protégé Woro2k has the highest FP/r of anyone on the slate over the past 3 months, and is a fantasy beast. He’s cheaper than Cerq. Behind him, jL, TMB, and Sausol are all tightly grouped in FP/r, meaning Sausol is definitely underpriced.
I’m not entirely sure Heroic deserve to be as big of favorites as they are either. This tournament is back online, where Heroic have excelled this year, but they’ve still been struggling lately. It’s really only been Refrezh who’s on form, as the rest of the team’s FP/r numbers have really dipped. Cadian appears to be breaking out of his slump lately, as he’s actually slightly above Refrezh in FP/r over the past month, although it’s not the biggest sample size. With all that said, Teses is stupid cheap. He’ll be the highest rostered player on the slate almost definitely. As usual, the way to play Heroic in GPPs is to play the overpriced players. On this slate that’s Stavn. He’s $9.2k despite not having stats the indicate he should be anywhere near that price. Refrezh is also overpriced but I imagine more people will roster him because his stats are at least very good.
On the Dig side, Hallzerk and Forest have a pretty big FP/r gap over Lekro, who himself has a pretty big gap over Heap. Friberg should basically never be in your lineup, he’s a distant 5th. I like Dig in GPP’s, as I think this game is closer to 65/35 than the 71% implied Heroic actually has.
Lastly, the one line I do mostly agree with is OG vs Complexity. I think OG could be slightly bigger favorites but I’d have it at like 60/40 so I’m picking nits there. I like Flamez for his price, he’s been OG’s highest FP/r scorer over the past 3 months.
I will say the Col side has much more attractive pricing. Other than BlameF, they’re all pretty reasonably priced. Blame’s numbers have really been hurt by this new roster, he’s actually behind jks for 1st on the team in one month FP/r. Coldzera and es3tag are a bit too cheap, as everyone on Col has scored fairly similarly lately, there shouldn’t be this big of a discrepancy in price.
My favorite captain on the slate is Woro2k. I don’t expect him to be rostered an overwhelming amount since it’s a 3 game slate and he’s in a coinflip game. He has as much if not more upside as anyone on the slate, and I expect him to dominate EG.
I do expect a ton of captain rostership to land on the trio of Refrezh, Cadian, and Teses. They’re all fine captain plays, but I’ll most likely be looking elsewhere as a way to differentiate. The one exception to that is Teses. He’s just so cheap that you can play basically anything else you want in your lineup. Pricing isn’t that tight today so I doubt I’ll have a ton of him, but I’ll definitely have at least a couple Teses cpt lineups.
Hallzerk and Forest on the other side are both really solid low owned plays.
I don’t love anyone from the OG/Col game. Flamez is fine I guess but the rest of OG is overpriced and/or underwhelming fantasy wise. Mantuu can always pop off but he hasn’t been doing it often at all lately. Col are just too balanced in scoring right now. I like stacking them in the flex but I’d be surprised if one was the top scorer on the slate, and this feels like a slate where you’ll want raw points or Teses (and he could be raw points too tbh) at captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!