IEM New York (NA) is back Tuesday. We have a huge 6 game slate on tap. The games are:
EG (99% implied win probability) vs Imperium
Furia (94%) vs New England Whalers
Triumph (85%) vs Rebirth
100 Thieves (94%) vs Mythic
Liquid (91%) vs RBG Esports
Chaos (78%) vs TeamOne
The first thing I like to do on huge slates like this one, is cross off teams that I won’t be playing anyone from. With all the mismatches on this slate, it’s quite a few teams. I won’t have anyone from: Imperium, New England Whalers, Mythic, or RBG Esports. Rebirth are right on the edge where I will try my best to avoid them but if I absolutely need the cost savings I may use a one-off. Triumph did just get 2-0’d by New England Whalers after all (Rebirth lost 2-1 to the same Whalers team). TeamOne are in basically the same boat for me. It’s important not to get sucked too much into them being the most “live” underdog according to Vegas when in reality Chaos are still huge favorites if you look at it independent of other games on the slate. That said, I may have a tiny bit of TeamOne exposure in this spot, again if I need the price savings.
If we assume for a minute no Rebirth or TeamOne, that leaves us with just the 6 favorites. Draftkings has really tightened up pricing, with 8 players priced at $10k and up, 3 of whom are over $11k. This means you have to go cheap in at least a couple of lineup spots. On a 6 game slate I don’t worry about ownership quite as much as it should be spread out a bit more by default. That said, we could see a couple of the cheap plays come in super high owned. The likely highest owned player on the slate will be Vini. If you told me a few months ago I’d be typing that sentence I tell you you’re nuts, but here we are, and for the second slate in a row at that. Vini has really come into his own within this Furia roster, and is a legit threat to be their top scorer on any given slate. Draftkings seems to refuse to recognize this though, and he’s priced all the way down at $7k while Hen1 and Yuurih are both over $10k. Much like last time out, Vini is good chalk, and I won’t be going out of my way to fade him. His teammate, arT, will also likely be fairly chalky at only $7.8k. As I always mention, his super aggressive style works even better against these lower tier teams, and we’ve already seen him go off for 90 DK points earlier in this tournament. Again, good chalk.
There are a few nice pivots you can make off of Furia in tournaments. From Liquid, Stewie + NAF both have strong upside and there are plenty of paths to that combo outscoring Vini + arT. From EG, Stan and Tarik are definitely not quite as high upside, Stan in particular, but against a team as weak as Imperium, anyone on EG could have a big day. AZR + Liazz are also a strong pivot from 100T. They have better upside than Stan/Tarik, and also face weak competition in Mythic. Again, anyone from 100T could go off.
I’m hoping that since they are the smallest favorites on the slate, the cheap Chaos pieces end up slightly overlooked. If you take at look at our projections, you’ll notice that outside of Furia, it’s actually the cheap pieces on Chaos that are projected for the highest scores. Now I do think they’ll garner some ownership, as Leaf in particular is too cheap at $6.8k, but I plan on coming in well over the field on both he and Vanity. Wrath has also dominated against the weaker teams in the field. He went +19 over 2 maps against Mythic and +20 over 2 maps against RBG. He shouldn’t have a ton of ownership as he’s priced up amongst the studs from the tier one teams, but I like him a lot on this slate.
From Triumph, Penny is definitely underpriced at only $7.2k and I’ll have plenty of him. Moose at $6.4k is also a bit too cheap. They don’t project quite as well as Chaos, but the combo could easily compete with anyone from the other favorites. Overall my rankings for the cheap 2 stacks are:
Now, from the studs on the slate, I’m going to try to get as much exposure as I can to Elige and Brehze. I expect them to have low ownership because of how expensive they are, but both have been absolutely dominant against the weak competition in this tournament. I already mentioned Wrath, and Kscerato is also a little underpriced compared to his peers at only $9k. To get one or ideally 2 of these players into my lineup is where exposure to Rebirth may be necessary. Carson (nosraC) is only $4.6k, and could easily pay off his salary even in a loss. The same can be said for both 4Pack at $6k and Xotic at $5.6k. I’m not going to stack Rebirth, but a one-off of any of these 3 could open up the salary to get to the top guys.
Vini is likely to be the most popular captain on the slate, but again I won’t be going out of my way to fade him. I do like arT quite a bit as a pivot, as I don’t really think anyone outside of Vini will be super chalky at captain. arT should come in with 5-10% captain ownership (maybe even less), which will not deter me from playing him.
Leaf is another solid captain choice, as is Penny. I don’t expect either to have much ownership, as again ownership should be super spread out. Those 4 will be my top targets assuming I will be mostly spending down at captain, as I think the pricing is too tight to pay up most of the time.
The exception to that may be if I do play Rebirth. If I pay up at captain, Wrath is my favorite play, followed by Brehze, Elige, and Kscerato. Again, I don’t expect to be able to get to any of them often, and even if I do go Rebirth I’d rather try to fit 2 of these players in the flex with Vini captain than put one at captain.
That’s it from me, good luck Tuesday!