Welcome back. Draftkings has their big $333 for this slate, which was supposed to be a solid 3-gamer. Sadly, due to flight issues, EG vs Mad Lions has been pushed back to Friday, so we’re left with a pretty horrible 2 game slate. Lock is at 6:30 am EDT, and the games are:
G2 (95% implied win probability) vs Lynn Vision
OG (71%) vs Pain
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
DO NOT play anyone from the EG/Mad Lions game.
I feel bad for DK honestly. Of all slates to have their big $333 they pick one where the only good game gets canceled.
Lynn Vision are the Asian qualifier for this event, a region that is notoriously weak. I’d be shocked if G2 drop more than 5-7 rounds on either map. I wouldn’t play anyone from Lynn Vision in the 100 person $333 and I honestly probably won’t in the $10 either. Maybe a couple z4kr one-offs but that’s about it. On the G2 side you can be different by playing Amanek. He’s priced up near Niko and Hunter, but his fantasy stats pale in comparison. That should keep his rostership super low, especially now that this slate only has 2 games. He’s a great GPP play. The other way to get different while playing G2 is to fade Niko. This is definitely not a $333 play, but it’s interesting in the $10. The idea being of course that Niko’s teammates frag out so hard that he doesn’t have to do much.
In the other game, I don’t think OG are favored by enough. Pain haven’t been able to compete with the Top NA teams, and while OG may not be in their absolute best form, they’re still a top 10-15 team in the world. I think there’s an 80-85% chance OG win this series. That means I’m going to be trying to force OG 3 stacks. It isn’t exactly easy to fit OG + G2 3/3, and the “optimal” lineups will likely be similar. People will prioritize Niko and Hunter, meaning the OG cheap players will be more popular the the G2 cheap players and the OG expensive players less popular the Niko and Hunter. Playing the OG studs and the G2 value is the easiest way to get different.
I also expect Saffee one off to be fairly popular. He has great fantasy stats, and is relatively cheap. I think it’s a fine play, but it won’t be super unique in GPPs. PKL is an interesting one-off, he’s SO cheap that you can fit a guy like Amanek without sacrificing the rest of your lineup. And his stats aren’t terrible. The idea behind this play is basically the all the high priced guys on G2/OG are the ones who do well, so the 10x his $4.2k price that you get actually is good enough.
To play Niko + Hunter + any of the top OG fraggers you basically have to go with a cheap captain. More people will likely go to niko (OG) or Aleksib, which makes Jackz and Nexa interesting plays. Nexa is my favorite on the bunch, as he shouldn’t be used much at all, and occassionally flashes high upside. I generally don’t think it’s worth the sacrifices you have to make elsewhere to fit Niko at captain on this slate.
Maybe you can fit Valde or Flamez since they aren’t that expensive, but Valde has been in a pretty bad funk lately. His fantasy numbers used to be right up there with Mantuu, but since Flamez arrived he’s fallen to a distant 3rd in FP/r. I’d rather find the extra $$ to get up to Flamez than play Valde captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!