With IEM New York taking Monday off we have an awesome 8 game slate of EU qualifiers for Flashpoint seas- oh wait just kidding DK decided to make the slate the 2 SA games. Why did they do this instead of a great slate of T2/3 EU/CIS teams that all start at noon EST? I have no idea. But, this is what we have so we’ll make due. The games are:
Isurus (53% implied win probablity) vs Red Candids
Boom (82%) vs Sharks
Boom are expensive, but the pricing in the Isurus/Red Candids game is loose enough that it’s pretty easy to make a Boom 3 stack work. This is likely the route almost everyone in the field will go. Boom are far and away the best team actually in SA (Furia and TeamOne play in NA, and MiBR have no one on their team currently plus were playing in NA/EU anyways). Felps is the best player in SA and the only real competition for that title comes from Boltz within his own team. For cash, single entry, or small field tournaments, a Boom 3 stack is the way to go. In larger GPP’s though, the Sharks are at least slightly interesting. These teams have met 3 times in the past month, and the Sharks did win one series. They were obliterated in the other 2, but they are more live than their ownership will likely reflect. If MME’ing, I’d run about 25% of my lineups as Sharks lineups in this spot.
Part of the reason the Sharks are likely to go underowned is that the other game is basically a coinflip. Typically what we see on slates like this is most people lock in 3 from the “guaranteed” win, and then try to decide which team to take from the coinflip. I’d be lying if I told you I have a strong read on this game. These teams are 10-10 against one another in map score, with 4 maps going to overtime. Since Isurus are the “favorites” in this spot, and won the last meeting of these 2 teams (a 2-1 where the 3rd map went to 4 overtimes) I expect them to come in slightly higher owned. For that reason, I’ll tilt my own exposure slightly towards Red Candids. Both teams are priced appropriately in that there isn’t a top fragger priced way down or a bottom fragger priced way up, so that shouldn’t drive ownership one way or the other, and overall both teams are priced similarly.
Boom are going to be the overwhelming chalk at captain on this slate. There are plenty of 3-3 lineups you can make with either Felps or Boltz captain, I expect most people will either go that route, or drop all the way down for the cost savings of Chelo. This should leave yel and shz with little captain ownership. All 5 players on this team typically put up very strong fantasy numbers, so yel and shz captain linueps are a nice way to differentiate while still playing Boom.
If you do go the Sharks route, Exit has been their best player, he’d be my main captain. Luken also has top score upside, so if running multiple Sharks lineups I’d mix in some of him at captain as well.
Another way to differentiate on this slate is taking your captain from the Isurus/Red Candids game. Everyone in this game should be fairly low owned at captain as the Boom players are much safer and project better. From Isurus, Jony Boy has the best numbers, but decov9jse is also worth a look. From Red Candids, Nython the clear top player. He’s my favorite captain from them, and I expect him to go a bit overlooked with his high $8.4k (flex pricing) pricetag. I’ll also mix in a bit of Latto captain in my Red Candids linueps.
That’s it from me, good luck Monday!