Tier 1, kind of, CS is back on Tuesday, as the Blast Fall Showdown kicks off. They ran regional qualifiers, so there are some very unfamiliar teams mixed in with the normal names. Lock is early, 6:30 am EDT, and the 3 game slate consists of:

Heroic (95% implied win probability) vs Poggerz

Dignitas (53%) vs Fiend

Complexity (88%) vs MiBR

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

I’m not 100% sure, but I don’t believe Chelo is in Europe with the team. MiBR played in another event Monday and he didn’t play, but he is listed on the HLTV match page. I haven’t been able to confirm anywhere if he’s in or not. I am going to go the route of keeping him out of my lineup unless I can confirm before lock that he is in. Since they are the last game of the slate that feels unlikely. Also, with Col as such huge favorites I have to believe Vegas also doesn’t think he’s playing.

Slate Analysis

How fun, a slate where an 88% favorite is only the 2nd biggest out of 3 games.

The good news is that Refrezh is finally priced up, so he’s not going to be absolute mega chalk. Instead, it will likely be Cadian, Sjuush, and Stavn (probably in that order). As always with Heroic, I like to try to play the guys who are lower rostered aka higher priced. On this slate that’s Refrezh and Teses. Refrezh at least has strong numbers lately, while Teses has been struggling a bit, so I’d expect Teses to be the lowest rostered on the team, making him my favorite GPP play.

Now, to fit those expensive guys on Heroic, it basically means I have to sacrifice within Col. I’m OK with doing that. Interestingly, BlameF has really struggled within this new lineup. He’s way down at .52 FP/r over the past month, 3rd on the team behind Poizon and JKS. Coldzera is also hot on his heels and es3tag isn’t that far behind either. Long story short I’m fading Blame almost entirely on this slate. Coldzera and es3tag will be my go to plays on Col since I’ll need the cost savings.

With cheap players on both Heroic and Col, I honestly expect both sides of the Dig/Fiend game to go under-rostered. Why roster a coinflip when you can take a sure thing? Well GPP upside is why. Just because a game is close (or should be close) doesn’t mean players can’t put up just as big of scores as those in stomps. If you’re playing more than a couple lineups, be sure to mix in some stacks from both sides of this matchup. For Dig, Hallzerk has been the best FP/r guy of late, then Forest, then Lekro, then Heap. Friberg remains wayyy at the bottom, I wouldn’t play him.

On the Fiend side, v1ctor has actually overtaken dream3r in FP/r lately (and also in price). Those two, H4rn, and Redstar are the best targets for Fiend.

As for the two huge underdogs, I will say I was a bit surprised how big the line is in Col’s favor. MiBR took Entropiq to overtime in a Bo1 the other day and Entropiq are just about as good as Col these days. If you’re MME’ing I’d take a couple of shots on MiBR stacks (sans Chelo unless news comes out he’s playing).

While I won’t be stacking Poggerz at all,  I will have a little bit of D0cc one off. He put up insane numbers in the qualifer, and based on the clips I found on his twitter, the dude pops heads. He’s super cheap and it’s not like Heroic are going to keep 5 alive every round, I’ll have a bit of him as a one off.

Top Captains

I like getting to Teses or Refrezh at captain if you can. I don’t think many people will use them, particularly Teses.

Other than them, Hallzerk, Forest, H4rn and Redstar are my favorite options. They have just as much upside, arguably more, than the highest priced players, but come in more in the mid-range since they don’t have the “guaranteed win” driving the price up.

That’s it for me, good luck Tuesday!

Leave a Reply