We have a day off between Tier 1 events, so we have a Pinnacle Cup 4 game slate. There’s a few familiar teams, and a couple unknowns, should be a fun slate. Lock is at 9:00 am EDT, and the games are:
Lyngsby Vikings (62% implied win probability) vs Saw
Enpoint (57%) vs Unique
FPX (85%) vs EC Kyiv
Nemiga (52%) vs Mouz NXT
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
arki was benched by Saw a while ago. story has been playing for over a month, yet isn’t on the slate. Don’t play arki.
I’m not 100% sure what’s going on with Endpoint. Boros is back, that was confirmed on Twitter, but the HLTV match page has Ritchiee listed as in for Thomas. HLTV is usually correct, but I haven’t seen anything on Twitter/Reddit/anywhere else from any of Endpoint, Thomas, or Ritchiee about him playing in place of Thomas Monday. Thomas played with the team on Sunday, so maybe he just has a commitment Monday and is gone for the day, or maybe HLTV is wrong. They are the first game of the slate (although there are games in the tournament before the slate so they could be running behind) so we should hopefully get some info before lock. To be safe, I’m not playing Thomas or Ritchiee in my preliminary build, but I am playing Boros.
The other teams all appear correct.
If you’ve been reading this article for any length of time you know I love me some FPX. However, I love me some FPX when they’re a low owned underdog on Tier 1 slates. Now they’re a favorite, THE favorite really given that all the other matchups are at least somewhat close, so I don’t like them nearly as much. It’s unavoidable to play some of them, but I’m definitely not locking them in as the 3 in all my 3-2-1 lineups (I build exclusively 3-2-1 on 4 game Bo3 slates). I will say we may have a bit of a “Heroic” situation, where 4 (it’s all 5 for Heroic) players all have solid stats so the cheaper ones get a ton of rostership while the cheaper ones get relatively little. In this case it’s Zehn and Farlig who are good and cheap, and Maden and Styko who are expensive. Styko in particular should be low owned making him my favorite GPP play from the team.
EC Kyiv are the one team I’m completely eliminating from my stacks. I’ll leave them in the play pool as a one off option, but I don’t want to stack them at all given that they are clearly outmatched in this matchup.
From the other 3 matchups, you guessed it, I like the underdogs for GPPs. I will say I was a little surprised how close the line was between Endpoint and Unique (points to the oddsmakers knowing Thomas is out?) but assuming those odds are correct, Unique should be the most under-rostered team on the slate. They’re slightly worse than a coinflip but could easily have the lowest rostership on the slate outside of EC Kyiv. The other team that could vie for that lowest rostership spot is Saw. Granted, they only have 4 players on the slate that you can use, but story is their bot fragger anyways. They’re another solid GPP play.
That’s really the theme with these lower tier teams and tournaments, embrace the randomness. That’s true both for the outcome of the games and scores within teams. If you look at the FP/r for most of these teams, the top and bottom players (or at least the 4th player) are often much closer than Tier 1 teams. This makes sense as lower teams tend to play more PUG styles, so everyone has close to an equal opportunity to frag. For example, Box is Nemiga’s 4th fragger, and he only averages .12 FP/r less than their top fragger, lollipop21k, over the past 3 months. Even if you assume every map goes all 30 rounds, that’s only a difference of a little over 2 kills per map, which really isn’t much if you think about it.
It’s important to embrace that randomness within the structure of good lineups though. If you choose a random player from 6 different teams, your odds of hitting are incredibly low. That’s obviously an extreme example, but even a 2-2-1-1 is MUCH more difficult to hit on than a 3-2-1. Sure, there’s technically more upside in a 2-2-1-1, but we aren’t trying to win a Milly Maker here, these fields only have (at most) a couple thousand entries. Keeping a good lineup structure but than randomness within that structure is the way to create lineups with a shot at winning GPP’s on these slates.
This is a fun slate because there isn’t a S1mple or Zywoo type player on the slate who commands and deserves a ton of captain utilization. The guys my model has at the top are (in order):
Of those guys, I particularly like Boros and Torzi. Boros has been out and hopefully people won’t realize he’s back on this slate (especially with Ritchiee’s inclusion in the player pool). Meanwhile, Torzi is on an “underdog” which should keep his rostership down. Both guys also happen to be a bit cheaper than the rest, which opens up the rest of your roster a bit.
I do also like Styko, ironically because he’s so expensive. He shouldn’t end up used much in the captain slot given his price and how close to him in projection his cheaper teammates are.
Other than that, it’s hard to really narrow down the player pool because as I mentioned, embrace the random nature of these teams. It would be easier to tell you who I won’t have in my captain pool, so I’ll do just that.
are the players I won’t have in my captain pool. While I obviously won’t actually roster everyone else, I’m OK with the rest of them in my lineups at the captain spot.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!