IEM New York (NA) continues on Saturday. We have 4 more games, they are:
100T (77% implied win probability) vs TeamOne
RBG (50%) vs Mythic
EG (99%) vs Rebirth
Furia (99%) vs Imperium
Pricing/Ownership
It’s officially Vini chalk day. Fresh off a dominant performance against EG, Furia now take on Imperium, who are are likely the worst team in the tournament. Vini had a great performance against EG, and checks in at only $7.2k. He’ll undoubtedly be mega chalk on this slate. That said, he’s what I’d consider good chalk, and I wouldn’t go out of your way to try to fade him. As I’ve mentioned previously, he and arT really clean up the kills against these lesser teams, as they’re routinely able to get multi-kills as they charge into fights. The higher priced players on Furia and EG might and not be quite as chalky as you’d expect given their massive win probabilities. This is because it’s difficult to afford them on this slate. In fact, there’s not a single 3/3 lineup that fits when using Furia + EG.
The most likely spot that this will push ownership to is the RBG/Mythic game. Adren, Keiti, and Davey are nice potential values from Mythic, while everyone except gmanchew project as decent values for RBG. These players are cheap enough that you can fit Furia/EG. I honestly have no read on this game, both these are quite frankly bad. I’ll have roughly equal exposure to both sides here.
The game that is likely to overlooked here in 100T vs TeamOne. 100T are priced almost as expensive as EG and Furia, but face a far superior opponent in TeamOne. Meanwhile TeamOne are priced right along with RBG and Mythic, but are large underdogs while those teams are in a coinflip. TeamOne have shown flashes of being able to compete with the kind of tier 1B teams in NA, but I do think the odds are right that 100T win this somewhere near 80% of the time. I think the ownership will be spread out enough across RBG and Mythic that you don’t really need to go to TeamOne on this slate, but I am interested in 100T. Their top guns should come in at far lower ownership than those of EG and Furia, but have equally high ceilings and not that much lower of a chance of reaching them. I really like them as a leverage play on this slate.
Top Captains
It’s likely to be Vini chalk captain day as well today, and again, I think he’s good chalk even at captain. Stepping up to arT within Furia is an interesting alternative, and maybe Kscerato but with how tight pricing is it’s tough to justify the high end salaries. There are no 4k free square type plays today like there have been the past few slates.
For EG, I’m not super interested in Stanislaw as captain, and Tarik isn’t exactly an exciting choice either. Ethan and Cerq are borderline too expensive again because of the tight pricing, and Brehze almost definitely is.
As I mentioned, I like 100T as a pivot off of EG and Furia, this remains true at captain. jks definitely isn’t cheap, but he saves you a little bit compared to the Brehze’s and Hen1’s of the world. I like him, Grat, and Jkaem as captain plays from 100T.
I prefer Vini vs going to anyone from the RBG/Mythic game, but if you do go that route, Adren and Fl0m from Mythic and Pwny from RBG are my favorite plays. Only Adren is cheaper than Vini though, and he’s only $400 cheaper (flex price), so again, I personally will be unlikely to go this route, as outside of Vini and maybe arT, ownership should be fairly spread out on this slate.
Good luck Saturday!
