Another day another 4 game Bo1 slate. Lock is at 1:00 pm EST again, and the games DK decided to include are:
Big (55% implied win probability) vs FPX
G2 (71%) vs Copenhagen Flames
Heroic (59%) vs Astralis
Sinners (74%) vs Endpoint
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Don’t play Boros, Endpoint is subbing Mirbit in for him as he was unable to get a visa in time to attend the tournament.
Don’t play Glaive, he’s still on paternity leave.
The rest of the player pool appears correct
The name of the game as we get into the 3rd day of Bo1’s, is not overreacting. Don’t read too much into the results so far, as Bo1’s are inherently highly variant.
Ironically I actually think Vegas has overreacted a little bit with the Sinners/Endpoint game. Yes, Sinners have taken down Col and Heroic to start the tournament, and Oskar’s LAN experience is helpful, but this is still the same team that got 2-0’d be Apex and 1WIN a week ago. Endpoint are playing with a sub, but Mirbit is solid (and has been one of their top fraggers both games, albeit 2 losses). This game should be more like 65/35 in my opinion.
I also think G2 may be slightly too large of favorites. They beat up on an Aura team that they simply outclass, then Jackz of all people went 27-11 in the win over a Big team that has also been really struggling. Unless G2 have seriously changed something up to enable Jackz, he isn’t doing that every day. I think it’s a bit to early to declare G2 “back” after they struggled so mightily recently. Again, I think this game should be more like 65/35 or even a couple percentage points closer.
Naturally for DFS this means I like the underdogs. I still of course think Sinner and G2 should be the favorites, but CPFL and EP should have low rostership and are nice GPP plays. Zyphon is too cheap for the Flames and mirbit is basically free for EP. I like both of them and then pairing them with the top guy from either team (roej or nicoodoz from CPFL, Crucial, Thomas, or Surreal from EP).
I may have buried the lede though, as my favorite play on the slate is FPX. Anyone who’s been reading since back when they were Godsent know I just can’t stop myself from playing a ton of this team every team they’re on the slate, but I think they’re a good play on Friday. It’s partly because I think FPX are talented, but beyond that it’s really because Big have looked terrible since Xantares left. He left a big hole and Gade just hasn’t been able to fill it. I think FPX are the straight up better team in this matchup. It feels like which FPX rifler(s) you want to play is cyclical. The last time FPX was on a bunch of DK slates it was Maden who was putting up big numbers, now he’s on a bit of a downswing and it’s actually Styko who has the best numbers lately among the riflers. Styko is a bit expensive and will likely go almost completely overlooked because of it. I like pairing him with zehN or Farlig. Pairing the two of them together is also fine, but it will likely be the most popular FPX stack, not that rostership will be overwhelming by any means, but something to keep in mind.
Heroic are the one favorite that I do like, or at least think the odds are about right for. Refrezh and Cadian are both underpriced, and will likely be popular, I’m going to get up to Teses and/or Stavn if I can. Even Sjuush is worth a look, as while he’s been quiet lately, everyone on that team has their moments in the spotlight.
With no Zywoo or S1mple on the slate, the stars are Niko and…oskar? Both guys put up elite, although maybe not transcendent like Zywoo or S1mple, fantasy numbers. They’re both expensive though, and since I like the underdogs in both games I’ll likely come in below the field on both guys. With the other teams on the slate not really having many “superstars” I’ll be spreading out my captain ownership a good deal. The guys I’ll be primarily focused on (in no particular order):
Some of those guys are super cheap, but I don’t think they’re complete punts. Both mirbit and Zyphon are too cheap relative to their teammates, and do have solid upside. Others are arguably overpriced like Teses and Styko, which should mean they’ll only be rostered by a tiny percentage of the field.
Good luck on Friday!