The EU Playoffs continue Thursday, we are back to a 3 game slate and 8 am EST start. The 3 games are:
Astralis (79% implied win probability) vs Spirit
Navi (69%) vs Complexity
BiG (52%) vs Heroic
Pricing is pretty loose on this slate, as Astralis are really the only team that’s priced up. S1mple is of course priced up, but the rest of Navi are all affordable. Both sides of the BiG/Heroic game are cheap.
To me this slate really comes down to how we think Complexity are going to play. They seemed to gel during the Ence series, and Natosaphix showed his talent on map 3, putting the team on his back with a 25-11 performance in their 16-6 victory. However, they definitely weren’t as much of a well oiled machine as they were with oBo, so stepping up in competition could expose the relative lack of practice as a team. I do think Vegas isn’t giving them quite enough credit with the line as big as it is. Complexity crushed Navi the last time these teams met, and they are in my opinion the overall more talented team. Plus, the map pool lines up nicely here, as Col should get to pick Mirage, a map they love and one that Navi has only played once recently. I think between the love of S1mple and people being scared of the roster change, ownership should be low, making this is the best spot to differentiate on Thursday. Plus, Complexity are so cheap they let you fit whoever else you want.
Astralis just beat this Spirit team during the group stage, and they did it with ease. Spirit will definitely be low owned, but I don’t plan on using them much, as the nearly 80% implied probability for Astralis is warranted, and I like the spot Complexity is in better. If you play S1mple, you likely can’t afford more than 1 of es3tag, Device, and Magisk, which should push a bunch of ownership to Dupreeh and Glaive. If you stack Complexity though, you can probably afford 2 of the more expensive guys, which should help make your lineup construction unique even if you’re playing Astralis just like everyone else.
The final game of the day is BiG vs Heroic. This is as tight as 2 teams can be, and I expect another close series. These teams have already met 3 times since the playerbreak, and while BiG is up 5 maps to 2, the losing team has won 10+ rounds every single map except one of the Heroic wins were BiG only got 7 rounds. Combine the toss up matchup with the fact that both teams really spread their fantasy scoring out, and you have a really tough game to build lineups from. I’m most likely to play one-off’s from this game and stack the other 2. If you for whatever reason feel strongly about this game one way or the other, taking a stand here could really set a group of lineups up for success, I just simply don’t feel confident enough to take a stand either way.
S1mple is likely to be the most popular captain on the slate, as he is almost every slate he’s on (barring slates that also have Zywoo). If you are in the Navi should crush Col with a stand-in camp, fire him up at captain, as he’s shown his upside time and time again.
My favorite captain though, comes from the other side of this game, in BlameF. I can’t remember the last time he was this cheap at only $7.6k. He’s shown over the last few months that he can compete with the S1mple’s and Zywoo’s of the world in terms of fantasy scoring, and if Col pulls the upset, it will likely be on his gigantic back.
From Astralis, es3tag and Device are my captains of choice. If you do make Spirit lineups, captaining Mir is a solid play, he should have very low captain ownership on this slate.
I’m planning on mostly staying away from a captain in the BiG/Heroic game, for the same reason I mentioned above. I genuinely don’t have a lean one way or the other on who I think is going to win, and BiG has 3 viable captains and Heroic has 4. I’ll simply stay away and stick my narrow captain core from the other two games.
That’s it for me, good luck Thursday!